Hey Snackers,
Google revealed its Year in Search 2025 yesterday, and the top trending person on Google this year wasn’t the new pope or a political figure, but d4vd, a 20-year-old singer who reportedly remains an active suspect in the death of a teen girl. Thanks to a series of what are now proving to be very prescient positions on a prediction market for the “#1 Searched Person on Google This Year,” one user made just shy of $1.2 million with a ~$10,600 “yes” position on d4vd combined with “no” positions on a gaggle of others.
The S&P 500 closed slightly higher and the Nasdaq 100 closed slightly down on Thursday, but small-caps continued to rally, with the Russell 2000 notching a new record close. Hopes of a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting remain high, despite jobless claims falling to a three-year low. Tomorrow’s delayed release of September personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, could impact rate cut expectations.
🧠 Trivia time… Try our Snacks Seven Quiz. Here’s a sample question:
Which generation is planning on cutting back on 2025 spending the most?
Check your answer.
JPMorgan to retail traders: You’re doing amazing :)
2025 is shaping up to be a dream year for retail traders, outperforming thanks to both what they bought and when they bought it.
“In ETFs — which represented 75% of retail’s invested dollars this year — retail investors outperformed both SPY and QQQ, thanks to their larger Tech bias and successful risk taking in precious metals during the September and October gold rush,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Arun Jain.
“Retail investors built substantial positions in AI/Tech companies by buying the dip during 3 episodes of weakness between Jan and Apr,” Jain added. “From May onward, they scaled back their stock purchases and shifted their focus to trading ETFs, chasing interesting trends such as GLD.”
The strategist noted that retail investors’ single-stock portfolio is fairly correlated to a JPMorgan AI data center/electrification basket, implying that the crowd is very long that theme — while also benefiting slightly from either good timing or security selection among the AI cohort.
Retail’s outperformance versus just steadily buying AI-linked stocks is smaller, thanks to recent volatility that saw speculative stocks get hammered for a month starting in mid-October, but the results still crush buying and adding to the Invesco QQQ Trust each month.
The Takeaway
Retail’s success in the stock market is of no small import for the US economy. The resilience in US consumption year to date in the face of a rising unemployment rate and increase in tariffs appears to be (at least partially) attributable to retail traders’ willingness to keep buying the dip, jumping in with their biggest net purchases in at least 10 years during the S&P 500’s worst day since 2020 back on April 3, the session after reciprocal tariffs were announced.
That made the cohort the biggest beneficiary of the ensuing bounce-back in stocks after the sharp declines from mid-February through early April. Good job!
OpenAI’s Sam Altman has explored expanding his business to space
Billionaires, they’re just like us: they want to bring their terrestrial beefs to outer space.
Apparently OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has explored buying or partnering with a rocket company to compete with Elon Musk’s SpaceX, The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. The two billionaires have had numerous public feuds over the years that have played out in the courts and on social media. They also both lead AI companies that have insatiable needs for data centers and have publicly discussed building them in space.
According to the WSJ, Altman has reached out to at least one rocket maker, Stoke Space, but that particular flight path has ended since the fall.
Part of the reason Altman is interested in space is his prediction that “a lot of the world gets covered in data centers over time,” as he said to popular podcaster Theo Von. And if there’s no more room on Earth…
Just the mention of Altman’s potential entry to the space race sent stocks like AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab soaring yesterday. As we’ve mentioned elsewhere, sometimes these stocks seem to trade on a what’s-bad-for-the-Musk-empire-is-good-for-us (and vice versa) vibe.
That said, it’s also likely that the stocks were equally (if not more so) rising from a general recovery in the high-beta momentum class of shares coveted by some retail traders.
And those companies are already aiming to compete with SpaceX, as we discussed with the CEO of Rocket Lab.
The Takeaway
In yesterday’s newsletter, we talked about how traders are always looking for the next big thing, aiming for what could multiply their money the way AI has supercharged the market this year. It could be quantum stocks, which also had a banner day yesterday. It could be robots. It could be space. Or it could (most likely) be some combination of any or all of these and AI — but space has captured the imaginations of millions of people for decades, and while AI has gotten most of the market’s attention, space stocks have been skyrocketing this year. AST SpaceMobile is up over 240% year to date, Planet Labs is up more than 210%, and Rocket Labs is up roughly 90%.
The Best Thing We Read Today
The best quotes from Salesforce’s earnings call
J.R.R. Tolkien hobbit Bilbo Baggins got a nod from famously colorful CEO Marc Benioff, as did Microsoft’s Clippy and an AI police bot named Bobbi, which “everybody loves.” Of course, he was most excited to talk about the company’s Agentforce, which he declared “a global phenomenon,” but he also got a little too overexcited about Salesforce’s operating cash flow and made a boast we had to fact-check about Walmart… and sorry, Benioff, you’re off by billions.
Snacks Shots
🏈 College Football: It’s championship weekend in college football, as teams on the playoff bubble make their last stand to try to break into the 12 teams selected to make the playoff. Some teams have already effectively punched their ticket, but it’ll be an important weekend for the likes of Alabama (which prediction markets* are giving a 90% chance to make it in), Notre Dame (74%), Virginia (62%), North Texas (55%), Tulane (43%), and James Madison (40%), all competing for just a few slots.
💸 Rich Guys: As recently as last week, both Larry Ellison and Jeff Bezos were tied with a 41% chance each to finish the year as one of the top three wealthiest people in the world, but fortunes have shifted. As it stands, Ellison’s priced at a 79% chance to be in the top three, while Bezos is down to just 28%.
🏈 NFL: Sunday evening will see the Houston Texans face off against the ailing Kansas City Chiefs, with Kansas City the favorite to win with a 62% chance, according to the markets. Knowing what we know today, what probably seemed like a killer AFC matchup for prime time when the schedule was being hashed out is far from the best of the day; that would be the 8-4 Indianapolis Colts playing the 8-4 Jacksonville Jaguars, which Indy, at 57%, is only slightly favored to win.
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
What Else We're Snackin'
Guess it didn’t have legs after all: Meta will slash metaverse and VR spending by up to 30%
Hims & Hers announced the acquisition of Canadian telehealth firm Livewell, marking its entry to the market
Google’s AI chip business could be a $900 billion boon for the company
Snack Fact Of The Day
“News evasion” has hit a record, with 40% of survey respondents saying they actively avoid reading the news.
Today's Earnings
Earnings expected from Victoria’s Secret
September PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)