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A whistle-stop tour of the state of artificial intelligence

Taking stock of the winners, losers, and users of the AI revolution so far.

If 2023 was the year it announced itself on the global stage, and 2024 was the year it started to take a leading role, then 2025 has been the year that AI really began calling the shots — whether we like it or not. The technology’s progress has driven the economy, powered the stock market, dictated political discourse, flamed the trade tensions between the US and China, encroached on the art world, infiltrated nearly all of our devices, and influenced the algorithms that decide what we watch, read, love, and hate. It’s also (finally) driving our cars.

So, how many people are actually using AI today? 

If you’ve been on the internet lately, then you’ve definitely interacted with it in some form, whether through an AI-powered social media algorithm, a Google search that offered an AI summary you didn’t ask for, a customer assistance chatbot, or an article that perhaps wasn’t as human-penned as you’d thought. But among a myriad of surveys and benchmarks, one of the easiest ways to gauge the demand for AI is to track the development of the biggest name in the game: ChatGPT, which just last week was reported to be nearing 900 million weekly users. Not bad for a service that’s barely 3 years old.

Rapid rise of AI chatbots
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In fact, most tech platforms have taken much longer to get to a billion users: Gmail had to wait more than a decade, Facebook about 8.5 years, and even the mighty TikTok took about five years. Considering those milestones were based on monthly users, whereas the reports for OpenAI’s app are weekly figures, it seems pretty likely that ChatGPT has already blown past the 1 billion monthly user mark… and Google’s not far behind. The tech behemoth’s own AI chatbot effort, Gemini — which recently made such a splash it caused a code red threat to OpenAI — is already up to 650 million monthly users.

Of course, as we’ve noted before, it’s a lot easier to scale a tech platform or app in 2025 than it was in 2005 — just ask teenagers, who have found ways to cram yet another platform into their ever-expanding screen time.

Taking accounts

Teenagers’ use of social media has become a hot topic in recent years, with parents and policymakers alike concerned about the impacts of the now AI-powered recommendation engines behind many popular apps. Just last week, Australia enacted a world-first ban, blocking under-16s from accessing 10 of the largest platforms to quell teen social media use.

American teens are similarly online, it seems, with a recent Pew Research Center study finding that a record number of those surveyed reported being on those platforms “almost constantly,” with huge shares visiting YouTube (76%) and TikTok (61%) every single day. Perhaps more concerning, though, are Pew’s new findings about young people’s AI chatbot use: roughly two-thirds (64%) of surveyed American teens reported ever using chatbots like ChatGPT and Character.AI, with 28% saying they use the tools daily.

Social media teens AI use
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From helping students with their homework to acting as an online companion, AI is becoming a resource for a growing number of young people who use it to answer their questions on everything from personal issues to essay help to career and relationship advice. And, with the ubiquity and frequency of chatbot use rising, there’s a good chance AI could have a bigger impact on teens in the future than social media does today.

Firming up

At the corporate level, companies have also been keen to experiment with AI, hoping the tech could help them automate processes or unlock efficiencies. Surveys from the US Census Bureau have shown that commercial adoption of AI has been gently rising, with larger firms (those with over 250 employees) more likely to say they have used AI in a business function than smaller firms.

Large firms AI adoption
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Failing real progress, “performative AI usage” has also become pretty common in the working world. For starters, public company execs can’t stop talking about it, hoping investors will reevaluate their stocks, having seen the prices of AI darlings at the center of the boom — names like Nvidia, Alphabet, Broadcom, Palantir, and CoreWeave — take off. 

Even boring old power companies are now sexy, with many now of the belief that electricity supply is the most pressing bottleneck for the AI ecosystem. Things that used to just be called “software” are now “AI-powered,” and a new crop of opportunistic entrepreneurs are eschewing nearly all other ideas to build in the AI arena.

Check, please

Arguably the most important question — who is paying for all the chips, data centers, and electricity powering our AI queries — is probably the most complicated to answer.

Users are certainly picking up some of the tab; soaring sales figures from companies like OpenAI, which is near $20 billion in annualized revenue, and Anthropic, reportedly closer to $9 billion, are testament to the fact that there are real revenues being generated in the space. But those are a drop in the ocean compared to what’s being spent on setting up the AI infrastructure, with companies like Meta showing up in rural towns and building data centers the size of Manhattan.

Indeed, the age of the asset-light tech giant is officially over, with companies like Oracle and Meta now some of the most capital-intensive businesses in the S&P 500. And then there’s private OpenAI, which has signed something north of $1 trillion worth of infrastructure deals.

From an accounting perspective, much of the “bill for AI” has so far come in the form of capex. When Meta spends $1 million on Nvidia AI chips, the company books that as capex. It doesn’t directly affect Meta’s bottom line until the next accounting period, when bookkeepers start to reduce the asset’s value through depreciation, over however many years they think those chips will be useful for. Nvidia, on the other hand, gets to book the $1 million as revenue straight away. 

So, in the short term, rampant capex spending actually boosts profits in aggregate — part of the reason why Corporate America and the stock market have had such a great year.

Of course, Wall Street is penciling in for costs to rise: estimates for depreciation expenses for America’s nine largest tech giants have all soared as they’ve become owners of seriously large physical assets.

History is AI-generated by the victors

But, while AI has been a huge boon for many American businesses, in turn helping Big Tech to get much bigger this year, some sectors have suffered in the shadow of the technology, and that’s even without considering the impact on individuals.

Software players like Adobe, Workday, and Docusign are under pressure, as AI lowers the barriers to entry in their respective fields; educators and publishers are battling, too, with AI able to whip up a decent essay or write a blog post in minutes. Young grads are facing a brutal job market, which many are blaming on AI, and entire industries like consultancy, customer service, and, ironically, even software development face threats from AI and automation. As the old saying goes: the only constant is change.

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Tesla jumps while Uber and Lyft dive, as Tesla tests Robotaxis without safety drivers

Over the weekend, Tesla began testing its driverless cars without safety monitors — a move that’s sent Tesla up and competitors Uber and Lyft down as investors view it as concrete momentum toward Tesla’s autonomous future.

Even Google, which owns current autonomous taxi leader Waymo, is down slightly in early trading, though it’s unclear if the Tesla news has anything to do with it. Waymo and Tesla are widely considered to be front-runners in the autonomous driving space.

Tesla bull Dan Ives, of course, expects Tesla to win, predicting it will command about 70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade.

Even Google, which owns current autonomous taxi leader Waymo, is down slightly in early trading, though it’s unclear if the Tesla news has anything to do with it. Waymo and Tesla are widely considered to be front-runners in the autonomous driving space.

Tesla bull Dan Ives, of course, expects Tesla to win, predicting it will command about 70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade.

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Nearly 20% of Meta’s Chinese ad revenue came from scams and other banned content: Report

Meta found that 19% of its $18 billion in ad sales in China last year came from ads for scams, illegal gambling, pornography, and other banned content, according a new report from Reuters that examined the company’s internal documents. The latest report comes on the heels of another Reuters investigation that found 10% of Meta’s global revenue last year came from such ads. Chinese advertisers represent a growing share of the company’s revenue.

To combat the situation, Meta created an anti-fraud team that briefly managed to cut back the rate of problematic ads, but after CEO Mark Zuckerberg weighed in, the group was disbanded. Fraud rates then returned to 16% of Meta’s China revenue by mid-2025.

The trove of documents, Reuters said, “reveals Meta’s efforts over that period to understand the scale of abuse on its platforms and the company’s reluctance to introduce fixes that could undermine its business and revenues.”

To combat the situation, Meta created an anti-fraud team that briefly managed to cut back the rate of problematic ads, but after CEO Mark Zuckerberg weighed in, the group was disbanded. Fraud rates then returned to 16% of Meta’s China revenue by mid-2025.

The trove of documents, Reuters said, “reveals Meta’s efforts over that period to understand the scale of abuse on its platforms and the company’s reluctance to introduce fixes that could undermine its business and revenues.”

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Dan Ives’ rosy predictions for Tesla

Wedbush Securities analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives is excited for the company’s new year and next decade. To demonstrate, Ives, who says he “never viewed Tesla simply as a car company,” published a series of characteristically bold predictions today. Here’s what he thinks.

Autonomous expectations:

  • Aggressive Robotaxi expansion across the US next year, reaching 30-plus cities.

  • Volume production of Cybercabs beginning in April or May, with full-scale production of autonomous vehicles and robotics ramping later in the year.

  • Tesla will command about 70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade (a view that differs from Morgan Stanley’s).

  • Full Self-Driving penetration could rise above 50% (up from 12% now), which Ives said would “change the financial model/margins” for Tesla.

Regulatory regression:

  • Federal regulatory barriers around FSD/autonomous driving will ease significantly under President Trump, according to Ives.

  • He expects an executive order in early 2026 that would shift more authority to federal regulators and reduce state-level control over autonomous driving rules.

Financial predictions:

  • With a current ~$1.4 trillion market cap, Tesla could reach $2 trillion within the next year, with a bull case of $3 trillion by end of 2026.

  • Ives reiterated his $600 price target and outperform” rating.

  • In a bull case scenario, he sees Tesla, now around $465, at $800 within 12 to 18 months.

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Tesla is testing Robotaxis in Austin without people in the front (or back)

It looks like Tesla’s driverless cars are finally ditching the driver. On Sunday, eyewitnesses spotted at least two Robotaxis driving around Austin without safety monitors — the Tesla employees who’ve been stationed in the front seats since the service launched in June.

In a post on X, CEO Elon Musk confirmed that the company is testing the service “with no occupants in the car” — so no safety monitors or passengers.

The development suggests that Tesla is making progress toward its promise, announced on its last earnings call, of removing safety drivers from the ride-sharing service in “at least large parts of Austin” by year’s end. Just last week at an xAI event, Musk reiterated that timeline.

Having a truly autonomous ride-hailing service would bring Tesla closer to catching up with Google’s Waymo, which is leading the battle for the driverless future. Tesla ultimately hopes to use its autonomous tech to turn much of its existing fleet into driverless cars and quickly scale its Robotaxi service — a move that would help prove itself to be an AI company rather than just a car company.

Always ahead of the curve, Musk last week told a Google executive that “Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla.”

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