(Bronson Stamp for Sherwood News)

What company’s past reveals the future of OpenAI?

Sherwood asked a baker’s dozen of writers to make their best case for what’ll happen to the most important company of 2024: OpenAI.

Walt Hickey

12/26/24 8:52AM

OpenAI has, in a very short time, catapulted itself from a small operation tinkering in a speculative and math-heavy field to a household name that’s been compared favorably to some of the most lucrative blue-chip companies in the history of American commerce.

This fast trajectory has made the company itself the topic of fascination and speculation, with the ultimate power of its technology, and the ultimate value of its business, the subject of endless discussion and debate. Contemplating the future of AI in general and OpenAI in particular isn’t just a Silicon Valley parlor game but national watercooler chatter. OpenAI is the next Google, some cry — it’ll change the way we use the internet! Others warn it’s the next FTX, an over-hyped scam led by a charismatic founder that’ll go to zero.

Here at Sherwood we wanted to consider the many paths that lay ahead for OpenAI, and we’ve assembled an all-star crew of writers who make their case for what they argue is OpenAI's future. Some see huge returns, others serious peril. In some cases, the tech is transformative on a scale that today we have difficulty even imagining; in others, you’ll hear about a rather boring but extremely lucrative business. And then there’s Taco Bell.

Let the arguments begin:

OpenAI is Visa by Taylor Lorenz
OpenAI is bitcoin by Crystal Kim
OpenAI is Uber by Max Knoblauch
OpenAI is Lyft by J. Edward Moreno
OpenAI is Adobe by Sophia Smith Galer
OpenAI is Pixar by Jon Keegan
OpenAI is Intel by Jeff Wise
OpenAI is IBM by Jack Raines
OpenAI is Microsoft by Ryan Broderick & Adam Bumas
OpenAI is Salesforce by Rani Molla
OpenAI is Napster by Jamie Wilde
OpenAI is Taco Bell by Adam Chandler
OpenAI is Lehman Bros. by Ed Zitron

OpenAI did not respond to a request for comment on the series from Sherwood News.

Rani Molla2h

OpenAI’s models are officially coming to Amazon

Amazon is finally getting in on the hottest ticket in tech.

After Microsoft announced yesterday that it had agreed to give up its exclusive rights to sell OpenAI’s models, Amazon, as expected, will start offering them to customers — something AWS CEO Matt Garman says users have been asking for “for a really long time.” Some models are available now in preview, and the most powerful GPT versions will show up “in the coming weeks.”

This is a big shift in the AI cloud wars. Microsoft’s early bet on OpenAI gave Azure an edge by locking up the most in-demand models. Now that exclusivity is gone, Amazon and other competitors can finally offer them too, closing a key gap and competing more directly for AI customers.

Amazon Set to Sell OpenAI Tech After Microsoft Cedes Exclusivity

Claire Yubin Oh4h

Ship-tracking app surges as Iran war continues

As Middle East peace talks stretch on, with Tehran reportedly offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade and the war ends, the owner of shipping intelligence platform MarineTraffic revealed that the app has gained millions of new users since the conflict began.

MarineTraffic’s user count jumped to 8.5 million this April, up from 3.5 million a year ago, the cofounder of its parent company, Kpler, said in an interview with the Financial Times. Paid subscribers, often workers within companies and governments looking for more data on supply chains and commodities trading, rose 11,000 in the same period.

Kpler, which also owns shipping intelligence platform FleetMon, draws its data from a range of sources, including the Automatic Identification System, satellites, and more than 500 people on-site, like port terminal operators.

Per Appfigures data, MarineTraffic is estimated to have raked in almost $1 million across March and April in app revenue (through April 27), more than double the ~$346,500 from the same months last year. Across the full year, Kpler expects to earn between $300 million and $400 million in annual recurring revenues.

Rani Molla

pedal to the meta

Meta could be getting ready to post its highest revenue growth since 2021

Meta’s outlook and analyst estimates suggest more than 30% revenue growth in Q1.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings

Tom Jones10h

Google will supply AI models to Pentagon in classified deal, per The Information

Google has become the latest tech company to ink an agreement to supply the Department of Defense (War) with AI, having reportedly closed a classified deal that allows the Pentagon to use its AI for “any lawful government purpose,” according to The Information.

The Information initially reported talks between the Alphabet-owned company and the US government around two weeks ago, following the messy breakdown of the relationship between Anthropic and the Trump administration — and the rushed OpenAI deal that took its place.

The move has reportedly sparked opposition among Google employees, with The Washington Post reporting that over 600 workers signed a letter to CEO Sundar Pichai to ask him to bar the Defense Department from using the company’s AI models for any classified work.