RFK Jr.’s antifluoridation focus isn't his only market-moving health idea

As President-elect Trump’s Cabinet coalesces, it makes sense that the views and statements of his team of advisers will move the stock market and affect investors. A big swing in dental-supply products may not have been the first thing that comes to mind.

But when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — the former Independent presidential candidate and “Make America Healthy Again” avatar turned Trump surrogate — was named potential Health and Human Services secretary earlier this month, his pledge to remove fluoride from the nation’s water supply was suddenly taken a lot more seriously. Kennedy argues that fluoridation adds a neurotoxic substance to the water supply, which in large doses can, he argues, cause health issues including “arthritis, bone fractures, bone cancer, IQ loss, neurodevelopmental disorders, and thyroid disease.”

But the CDC and other medical groups say such side effects happen only when taking substantially more fluoride than is allowed in US water supplies, and that the levels represent a powerful and safe example of preventive public health. 

With Kennedy taking center stage, the fluoride backlash, long grist for conspiracy theorists, has officially arrived. Winter Haven, a town of 57,000 in Florida, already voted to remove fluoride from its water supply, citing Kennedy’s stance as a reason to remove the chemical and save the municipality $48,000 a year. According to local news channel WFLA, the city’s mayor pro tem, Brian Yates, said: “The government really should not be involved in healthcare, or what goes into the bodies of citizens. Those really should be left up to the patient and the provider.”

The dental industry has taken notice, for better or for worse. Republican representative and former dentist Mike Simpson said Kennedy’s policy vision would be “good for the dental profession,” adding: “A lot more cavities to fill.” Don Bilson, a financial analyst and head of event-driven research at the advisory firm Gordon Haskett, released a report on Monday saying that Kennedy’s proposal would “lead to an acceleration of tooth decay and more dental visits.” That led to a surge in stock prices for dental-supply companies, based on assumptions Americans would invest more in alternate sources of fluoride — mostly topical fluoride treatments at the dentist as well as fluoride toothpaste — to protect against increased risk of cavities.

Shares in dental-supply giant Henry Schein rose 7.5%, while Dentsply Sirona rose 7%. Kennedy’s choice might even supercharge an already growing global dental-fluoridation industry, set to grow from $4 billion to $11 billion between 2024 and 2034, on the strength of self-application, a growing population of older people, and increased focus on preventive care. New products like fluoride varnishes and nano-based fluoride treatments have been cited by analysts at Grand View Research as big growth drivers for dentistry. 

Elsewhere, Kennedy’s unorthodox views on vaccines, medicine, food, and the federal bureaucracies that manage these parts of our economy have rattled some of the biggest corporations. GOP consultant Liz Mair told Politico that consultants across DC are figuring out how to work with Kennedy and avoid getting in the crosshairs of regulatory change. “MAHA” and social-media pressure might push firms to rethink how they operate. 

“There are tons of mainstream Republicans with big followings who retweet stuff he puts out there,” she said, “about how seed oils are making everyone fat and McDonald’s needs to go back to frying fries in tallow.”

Vaccine makers, including Pfizer and Moderna, lost $8 billion in market value the day after Kennedy’s nomination was announced. The large biotech and life-sciences industries will also be particularly sensitive to the future of the National Institute of Health, a target of Kennedy’s ire, which has a $47 billion budget this year. These funds support vital biotech research, supporting many of the scientists and firms who develop drugs and lease lab space.

“It caused widespread selling across the healthcare landscape,” Bilson said of the Kennedy pick. “Drugmakers, contract research organizations, and health insurers all felt the quake. Rather than stop there, the damage spilled into packaged foods. And advertising.”

But Kennedy’s advancement of the antifluoridation cause showcases how much economics has shaped the mineral’s ubiquity in American life. The initial discovery that fluoride could stop tooth decay can be traced back to Frederick McKay, a dentist whose research in the western US in the early 20th century found that water with high concentrations of fluoride turned teeth brown, but also prevented degradation. Further research showed that more controlled levels of the chemical could prevent tooth decay without causing discoloration. 

This was a big deal, said Frank Zelko, an environmental-history professor at the University of Hawaii, because the country’s dental health was atrocious until relatively recently. In the mid-20th century, the US military faced a recruitment crisis because so many prospective soldiers couldn’t qualify over poor teeth; they simply couldn’t chew hard military rations in the field. Roughly 1 in 10 men who applied to fight in WWII got rejected over missing teeth. 

At the same time, Zelko said, dentistry was looking to bolster its reputation, and the idea of fluoridation as a great public-health crusade took hold, part of the postwar belief in the miracles of US industry and science (which, critics argue, led to rushed and incomplete trials and public-health studies). In 1945, Grand Rapids, Michigan, became the first city to add fluoride to its water supply. Since then, the CDC and dental industry have heralded fluoridation as a great public-health advance.

The millions of kilograms of fluoride added to our water supply is, as Kennedy and other detractors rightfully point out, an industrial byproduct. One form of fluoride used in water, liquid fluorosilicic acid, is derived from the manufacturer of phosphates. Previously, fluoride used to come from the aluminum industry. In addition to its role of preventing cavities, which accounts for 63% of its use in the US, fluorosilicic acid is used to preserve wood, as an ingredient in pesticides, and to manufacture high-end microchips and solar panels. Stuart Cooper, a director at the Fluoride Action Network, estimates just about $100 million a year is spent on water fluoridation in the US. 

According to Zelko, most of our fluoride comes from the phosphate industry and China. “It’s not a huge side hustle for these firms,” he said. “It’s more a nice little income stream that helps them avoid more costly disposal expenses.” 

It’s uncommon that countries outside the Anglosphere fluoridate their water — most of Western Europe has never done it — and since the introduction of improved fluoride toothpaste, countries that don’t fluoridate water have had the same rate of improved dental health as the US, Zelko said. Studies have shown the benefits of water fluoridation have decreased as fluoride toothpaste use has increased.

Kennedy’s pronouncement won’t immediately take away fluoridation from the roughly 70% of the nation that gets fluoride added to its tap water; the process remains under local control. But the increased focus on dental health might just give the multibillion-dollar toothpaste industry a shot in the arm. 

After all, even with fluoridation, more than half of teenagers and nearly 90% of US adults have experienced tooth decay.

Patrick Sisson is a reporter covering cities, businesses, and technology.