The 6 biggest US airlines spent $1.2 billion more on fuel in Q1, and things are about to get worse
Carriers expect to pay about $4.26 per gallon for jet fuel in Q2, up from $2.80 in Q1.
With JetBlue’s Tuesday morning earnings report, we can now put some early figures on the jet fuel crunch for US airlines.
Collectively, the country’s six biggest carriers spent about $1.2 billion more on fuel in the quarter that ended in March than in Q1 of 2025. Given this year’s first quarter included only one month of the war in Iran, things are likely going to get worse.
Per their earnings reports, here’s how much more airlines paid for fuel in the first quarter compared to last year:
Delta Air Lines: $196 million.
United Airlines: $340 million.
American Airlines: $341 million.
Southwest Airlines: $107 million.
Alaska Air: $115 million.
JetBlue: $62 million.
Looking ahead, carriers expect the seat belt sign to stay on. Delta forecast a $2 billion hike to its Q2 fuel bill, and Alaska guided for “$600 million or more.”
On average, US airlines are expecting to pay more than 50% more per gallon of fuel in the second quarter than in the first, as prices continue to average above $4, according to the Argus US Jet Fuel Index.
As recent flyers will know, airlines have been making attempts to “recapture” fuel costs through higher fares, fewer flights, and the hiking of bag fees in recent weeks. Still, those efforts are slow-going and need to be carefully done to have the lowest impact on demand.
“To state the obvious, the best type of fuel recapture is not to purchase the fuel in the first place,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said on the company’s earnings call earlier this month. The company said it expects to recover up to half of its higher fuel costs in the quarter.
United and American similarly guided for up to 50% recovery in Q2, while JetBlue expects to recapture up to 40% of its Q2 fuel bill. Southwest COO Andrew Watterson called recapture forecasts a “dangerous game.”
“At the end of the day, this ‘percent of fuel recovery,’ which is really what you would put on top of your trend, it’s going to be dictated by market conditions, not by some academic formula or target of calculated recovery,” Watterson said.
Per United CEO Scott Kirby, to recover the full amount of higher fuel costs, the carrier would need to earn between 15% and 20% more per passenger.
“As yields increase, there will be an elasticity effect on demand, [which] we’re estimating will lead to less overall demand,” said Kirby. “While we haven’t actually seen that decline yet, Econ 101 makes us believe it’s coming.”
