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United offers dual full-year outlooks: One for a normal year and one for a recession

United is the second of the big four airlines to report earnings this quarter.

4/15/25 4:48PM

The second of the big four US carriers to drop its results, United Airlines, reported first-quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday. Its shares surged more than 6% in after-hours trading.

United reported a profit of $387 million, and its adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 beat estimates.

Unlike its rivals Delta Air Lines and Frontier, United did offer full-year guidance amid rough industry turbulence caused by tariffs and tariff-related slowdowns in travel and discretionary spending.

In fact, oddly enough, it offered two.

In a stable economic environment, United said it expects adjusted earnings per share of between $11.50 and $13.50 this fiscal year, the same outlook it gave in January. In a recessionary environment, United expects to earn between $7 and $9.

Explaining the dual outlooks, United said:

“A single consensus no longer exists, and therefore the Company’s expectation has become bimodal — either the US economy will remain weaker but stable, or the US may enter into a recession. The Company is therefore providing two separate guidance benchmarks based on these two different macroeconomic views.”

Meanwhile, United’s quarterly revenue of $13.2 billion came in slightly below analyst estimates. United said it flew 40.8 million customers in the quarter, up from the same period last year. Passenger revenue climbed nearly 5% in the same time frame to $11.9 million.

Airline execs have repeatedly expressed their displeasure with tariffs — even if they don’t always used the word itself. Delta CEO Ed Bastian last week warned that the US will “probably end up in a recession” if trade uncertainty continues. In February, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury called them a “lose-lose” for the industry. Both Delta and Ryanair have said they won’t accept deliveries of tariff-inflated planes.

Prior to trade war turbulence, US carriers were feeling wildly optimistic about this year. United was coming off a Q4 profit record of $985 million and Delta said it expected 2025 to be its best financial year in a century.

Instead, the big four airlines — which, including regional partners, control 80% of the US market — have shed roughly $33 billion in market cap combined year to date. Last week, Goldman Sachs lowered its outlook for the entire US industry. According to data from the US International Trade Administration, arrivals to the US from all overseas origins fell nearly 12% in March.

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Paramount reportedly offers concessions to resolve multistate antitrust investigation

Paramount has reportedly offered up some concessions in an effort to prevent an antitrust lawsuit by California and about 10 other states, according to Bloomberg reporting on Monday.

Reuters first reported on the potential suit from a group of unnamed states last week, which could throw a wrench in Paramount’s plans to buy rival Warner Bros. Discovery in a Hollywood megamerger.

The list of concessions is unknown, though Bloomberg previously reported that Paramount is open to divesting some of its kids TV assets to appease EU regulators.

Late last month, reports said US regulators appeared likely to approve the $110 billion merger, following a meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ antitrust staffers.

Paramount Offers Concessions to Head Off State Antitrust Lawsuit

The list of concessions is unknown, though Bloomberg previously reported that Paramount is open to divesting some of its kids TV assets to appease EU regulators.

Late last month, reports said US regulators appeared likely to approve the $110 billion merger, following a meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ antitrust staffers.

$98B ⛽

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The IATA released its latest financial outlook for the airline industry over the weekend, forecasting a $98 billion jump in the sector’s collective fuel bill. The world’s largest trade group representing airlines expects the oil spike to halve profits by 49% from last year to $23 billion.

The group also expects profit margins to halve year over year, falling from 2025’s 4.2% to 2%. Still, revenue is expected to climb to $1.17 trillion from $1.07 trillion.

A surge in the cost of jet fuel has rocked US and global airlines this year, leading Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, and others to raise fares and ancillary charges like bag fees. Low-cost carriers, which operate on smaller margins, have been squeezed the hardest, resulting in Spirit’s shutdown.

“It’s a tough year for all airlines, especially those whose balance sheets had not yet recovered from COVID. And, of course, for those operating in the Gulf,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh, who added that demand is holding up and about half of passengers expect to spend more on travel this year. “That bodes well for a strong northern summer peak season. The big unknown is how long travelers and shippers can tolerate the higher costs of connectivity.”

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GM has reportedly rehired more than 100 former Cruise employees, 18 months after shuttering the robotaxi unit

GM has rehired more than 100 employees it let go early last year when it shuttered Cruise, its former robotaxi business, according to reporting by The Information.

The hiring spree, which also includes employees from Nvidia and Uber, is geared toward ramping up GM’s plans for personal-use self-driving vehicles and not robotaxis. The former had been the focus of Cruise, prior to GM shuttering it in 2024.

Reporting last fall revealed that GM was attempting to rehire some former Cruise employees, but the scope of that effort wasn’t clear. More than 1,000 employees were laid off when the automaker scrapped Cruise, which it invested $10 billion into.

Google’s Waymo, Cruise’s former chief rival, is now worth $126 billion after a $16 billion funding round earlier this year. The company says it’s serving 500,000 paid robotaxi rides per week in the US.

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