Recession, or no recession? The latest economic data, in context

7/28/22 8:00PM

The US economy is in a recession. At least it is if you ask some economists.

‍Agree to disagree

‍The country notched its second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth, with US output contracting at an annualized rate of 0.9% last quarter. For most economists that meets the definition of a recession, but technically in the US a recession isn't official until a group at the National Bureau of Economic Research actually say "yep, this is a recession".

Exactly what data the NBER considers beyond GDP isn't clear — it appears to be more of an art than a hard science. Soaring inflation will surely count for the "it's probably a recession" argument, while near-record-low unemployment will go in the "maybe it's not" column.

GDP going backwards is a definitive sign that things are slowing up — and another three-quarters-of-a-percent rate hike, which was announced this week by the Federal Reserve, is unlikely to help GDP growth get back into the green.

Whether it is a technical recession or not, the third option in this debate is to get philosophical and quote Bobby Kennedy — who famously said that GDP "does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials... it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile".

Max Knoblauch23h

The Trump administration is reportedly planning a 50% made-in-America requirement for USMCA tariff relief

Qualifying for USMCA-related lower tariffs may soon require more US-made vehicle components, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal.

The Trump administration is reportedly planning to introduce a 50% US content requirement for vehicles covered by the trade pact to receive lower tariffs. The content would be measured by cost, according to the WSJ.

There currently isn’t any US-specific requirement for those lower tariff rates, but in order to receive preferential tariffs, vehicles are must contain at least 75% regional content (components made in North America). Per Reuters reporting, the Trump admin is seeking to raise the regional requirement to 82%.

These reported plans are subject to change as the US negotiates USMCA terms with Mexico over the next few months.

Overall, Tesla will likely have the easiest time qualifying for any stricter requirements. The automaker’s vehicles contained the highest amount of US/Canadian content in 2025, according to American University research. Ford, GM, and Stellantis all scored lower.

Notably: the underlying government data that many domestic content measurements rely on intentionally combines US and Canadian components, so it’s difficult to know exactly how much of any given vehicle is specifically US-made.

Exclusive | Trump Administration Wants Autos Under USMCA to Be at Least 50% Made in America

These reported plans are subject to change as the US negotiates USMCA terms with Mexico over the next few months.

Tom Jones5/29/26

The $640,000 Luce makes the average Ferrari look like a bargain

Put aside the shape; put aside the smoothing out of Ferrari’s iconic sharp edges; put aside, even, the calls from former Chairman and President Luca Cordero di Montezemolo to “take the Prancing Horse off.” On the grounds of price alone, Luce detractors might have a point.

By now, many of us will have read the criticisms of Ferrari’s first fully electric vehicle, as the Luce — which was unveiled to the world earlier this week and promptly saw the company’s shares crash out in New York and Milan — gets subtly shaded by competitors online and not-so-subtly shaded by basically everyone else.

What makes all of this worse for Ferrari is that, even by the luxury car maker’s notoriously high standards, they’ve slapped a pretty hefty price tag on the Luce, and the company’s CEO, Benedetto Vigna, has already been forced to defend the €550,000 ($640,000) price point, saying yesterday that it’s “fair to pay for innovation,” per Reuters.

While Ferrari’s cars have been getting more expensive of late, as recently as 2022, Ferrari’s average revenue per car sold was around $340,000. At nearly twice that price, this new electric model is obviously proving a little much (visually, conceptually, and financially) for many loyal and long-standing fans of the Prancing Horse to stomach.