A wall of worry: Stock markets are calm, despite the headlines

5/28/23 8:00PM

The calm before…

‍Considering the backdrop of a potentially havoc-wreaking US government default, stock markets are remarkably quiet.

Indeed, US stocks have been calm all year, swaying only gently from side-to-side on any given day. The sharpest drop in the flagship S&P 500 Index came on February 21st, when the market fell 2%. Last year, a 2% drop would have only been the 24th worst day, and of course it’s absolutely nothing compared to the ~8%, ~10% and even 12% falls that we saw in 2020, during the early days of the pandemic.

The Wall Street Journal blames the robots for the calm, citing a rise in systematic (algorithm-driven) investors, which have pushed markets higher, as discretionary investors sit on the sidelines.

‍Reasons to (not) worry

‍In addition to the debt ceiling, the current crop of top concerns includes ongoing geopolitical conflicts, still-high inflation, how the impacts of the interest rate rises will filter through the economy and whether the short banking crisis we saw earlier this year is truly resolved. That’s a steep wall of worry that stocks have to climb — but then that’s almost always been the case, an idea well illustrated by this chart, tracking nearly a hundred years of the strongest "reasons to sell". So far this year, investors haven't hit the panic button yet.

Max Knoblauch8h

Paramount reportedly offers concessions to resolve multistate antitrust investigation

Paramount has reportedly offered up some concessions in an effort to prevent an antitrust lawsuit by California and about 10 other states, according to Bloomberg reporting on Monday.

Reuters first reported on the potential suit from a group of unnamed states last week, which could throw a wrench in Paramount’s plans to buy rival Warner Bros. Discovery in a Hollywood megamerger.

The list of concessions is unknown, though Bloomberg previously reported that Paramount is open to divesting some of its kids TV assets to appease EU regulators.

Late last month, reports said US regulators appeared likely to approve the $110 billion merger, following a meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ antitrust staffers.

Paramount Offers Concessions to Head Off State Antitrust Lawsuit

The list of concessions is unknown, though Bloomberg previously reported that Paramount is open to divesting some of its kids TV assets to appease EU regulators.

Late last month, reports said US regulators appeared likely to approve the $110 billion merger, following a meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ antitrust staffers.

$98B ⛽

Max Knoblauch16h

The IATA released its latest financial outlook for the airline industry over the weekend, forecasting a $98 billion jump in the sector’s collective fuel bill. The world’s largest trade group representing airlines expects the oil spike to halve profits by 49% from last year to $23 billion.

The group also expects profit margins to halve year over year, falling from 2025’s 4.2% to 2%. Still, revenue is expected to climb to $1.17 trillion from $1.07 trillion.

A surge in the cost of jet fuel has rocked US and global airlines this year, leading Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, and others to raise fares and ancillary charges like bag fees. Low-cost carriers, which operate on smaller margins, have been squeezed the hardest, resulting in Spirit’s shutdown.

“It’s a tough year for all airlines, especially those whose balance sheets had not yet recovered from COVID. And, of course, for those operating in the Gulf,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh, who added that demand is holding up and about half of passengers expect to spend more on travel this year. “That bodes well for a strong northern summer peak season. The big unknown is how long travelers and shippers can tolerate the higher costs of connectivity.”

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GM has reportedly rehired more than 100 former Cruise employees, 18 months after shuttering the robotaxi unit

GM has rehired more than 100 employees it let go early last year when it shuttered Cruise, its former robotaxi business, according to reporting by The Information.

The hiring spree, which also includes employees from Nvidia and Uber, is geared toward ramping up GM’s plans for personal-use self-driving vehicles and not robotaxis. The former had been the focus of Cruise, prior to GM shuttering it in 2024.

Reporting last fall revealed that GM was attempting to rehire some former Cruise employees, but the scope of that effort wasn’t clear. More than 1,000 employees were laid off when the automaker scrapped Cruise, which it invested $10 billion into.

Google’s Waymo, Cruise’s former chief rival, is now worth $126 billion after a $16 billion funding round earlier this year. The company says it’s serving 500,000 paid robotaxi rides per week in the US.

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