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Netflix Emmy nominations

The streamer’s scooping plaudits, while adding subscribers

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Netflix further cemented its place atop the streaming throne yesterday, adding more than 8 million net subscribers in Q2 — nearly twice as many as Wall Street had estimated. In markets where it’s available, a healthy chunk of those additions (45%) came from its $6.99 ad-supported tier: a sign that people are increasingly opting to save pennies rather than avoid ads.

As the creators of many of the original shows and movies on Netflix know, commercial and critical success can be hard to come by, but the streamer itself seems to be doing pretty well on both fronts. Indeed, Thursday’s report, where the company also exceeded top and bottom line expectations, capped off a great couple days for Netflix, after hit shows like The Crown, Baby Reindeer, and Ripley saw it pick up 107 Emmy nods on Wednesday, the most for any single streamer or network this year.

Challengers

Not far behind, however — and largely on the back of critical darlings Shōgun (25 noms in the drama category) and The Bear Season 2 (23 noms, still semi-inexplicably, in the comedy category) — was FX, which managed to edge out perennial Emmy-bagger HBO/Max, with 93 nods for the former and 91 for the latter. That’s a record for the Disney-owned network, trouncing its previous tally of 56 back in 2016… though it wasn’t affiliated with Hulu, the streaming platform where The Bear lives exclusively in the US, back then.

Of course, topping the nominations chart doesn’t always translate to major success at the ceremony itself: Netflix still holds the record for most nominations in a single year with a whopping 160 nods at the 2020 Emmys. It only ended up taking home 21 awards that year.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets give slight edge to Netflix in Warner Bros. battle after eventful week

The ongoing bidding war between Paramount and Netflix for the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery had some significant news this week that could change the outcome:  

  • Things kicked off Tuesday, when WBD said in a statement it would resume talks with Paramount Skydance to consider its best and final offer after Netflix allowed a seven-day waiver. The WBD board continues to “unanimously recommend” the merger with Netflix, while the streaming service will retain its rights to match or exceed any forthcoming offer from Paramount. The negotiation period ends on February 23.

  • IndieWire reporter Brian Welk talked to a few experts about whether the new developments bring clarity to the ongoing bidding war. One professor said without Paramount offering its “best and final offer,” the company loses credibility, while another professor said it makes Netflix look even more confident. 

  • Lightshed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield said on his podcast that Paramount will have to raise its offer to as high as $36 to $37 per share. (The company has stuck to $30.) In comparison, Netflix’s initial offer is for $27.75 a share to buy the studio and streaming service, while Paramount is bidding to buy the whole company. 

  • Semafor reported Thursday morning that some Democratic senators are “unhappy” with the fact that Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison refused to attend a hearing two weeks ago, and could launch an investigation into the deal if they retake the Senate.

  • Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Netflix has “ample cash” and could increase its offer for WBD if Paramount beefs up its own offer, according to sources. 

  • Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently appeared on a recent episode of “The Town with Matthew Belloni” to reiterate that he doesn’t plan on ruining WBD’s theatrical business model and promised to keep the 45-day theatrical window for WBD films, which could appease opposition from theater owners.

  • Variety reported that there’s been a shift among WBD employees who now support Netflix’s acquisition, though there’s still some skepticism among others.

WBD shareholders are still set to vote on the proposed Netflix merger next month, on March 20. Despite the renewed talks with Parmount, as of Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET, prediction markets speculating on who will ultimately come out on top have recently flipped to give the edge back to Netflix, pricing in a 46% chance over Paramount’s 44% odds. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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