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Two Oranges
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PEELING BACK

Has OJ lost its mojo?

Customers are complaining about Tropicana’s new bottle design, after years of falling orange-juice consumption.

Millie Giles

Orange juice has been the vibrant, vitamin-rich cornerstone of breakfasts and brunches in America for more than five decades, after a glut of the fruit in states like Florida last century gave rise to innovations in extracting and concentrating its nectar.

However, in recent years, a series of poor harvests has seen production falter and the price of OJ soar. At the time of writing, the price of frozen concentrated OJ futures is ~$4.80 per pound, per MarketWatch — roughly 5x where it was trading in 2020. 

Club Tropicana, drinks aren’t free

The latest blow to pocket-squeezed fans, though, is not the juice itself, but from Tropicana, America’s leading brand of OJ. The company recently redesigned its containers, replacing the iconic 52-ounce “carafe” with a narrower 46-ounce bottle.

OLD Vs. NEW DESIGN:

Though Tropicana says that the price of the new bottle will be lowered to reflect its size, some customers are considering boycotting the brand on the basis of “shrinkflation,” or companies charging the same price for less product. Despite Tropicana’s explanation that retailers may not have updated prices yet, the damage to its brand may have already been done: a notorious redesign in 2009 was met with similar vitriol, costing the company an estimated $30 million over just two months.

But even without objections pertaining to packaging, consumers have lost some of their zest for the drink.

Orange juice consumption has fallen chart
Sherwood News

According to CNN, Tropicana’s sales had tumbled 19% year on year in October, and data from the USDA tells a similar story: consumption of OJ in the US has been dropping. So, why are Americans turning away from OJ?

Prices aside, one factor is that eating habits have shifted away from home cooking and toward convenience. Since OJ is typically drunk in the morning, there’s less room for leisurely sipping a glass in light of the grab-and-go approach of modern life (see also: the meteoric rise of ready-to-eat Uncrustables).

Beyond this, a big selling point of OJ has long been its nutritional value, particularly as a source of vitamin C. But now, concerns over its sugar content — The Food Institute reported that a single 12-ounce glass contains 9 teaspoons of sugar, about the same as a can of Coke — may be putting off health-conscious consumers.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Jordan catching up to Chalamet following Actor Awards

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that Marty Supreme star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either Blue Moonlead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And thats exactly what happened when the Sinners star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards arent a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than its ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Chalamet in the lead for Best Actor, but Actor Awards could shake up race

The final voting period has kicked off for the 98th Academy Awards. Up until last weekend, many of the main categories seemed like a lock. While “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley has been the predicted front-runner for the Best Actress statuette for some time now, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor and Actress races have been upended following the BAFTA Film Awards.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Timothée Chamalet still remains in the lead for the Best Actor prize, his odds have gone down slightly after he lost the BAFTA award, while the wins of Wunmi Mosaku and Sean Penn in the supporting categories have made it a more exciting race. Here’s a roundup of what some experts and awards pundits have said this week:

  • While Gold Derby still has Chalamet as the front-runner for the Actor Award (and the Oscar), his odds have gone down slightly following the BAFTA loss. Surprisingly, the publication has “Weapons” star Amy Madigan in the lead to win the Actor Award for supporting actress, while they have Penn as the front-runner getting the Actor Award for supporting actor.

  • Numlock Awards reports that the BAFTA Awards reshaped the Oscars race, with Chalamet’s loss throwing the Best Actor race “into chaos” following “I Swear” star Robert Aramayo’s win. (He was not eligible to be nominated for an Oscar.)

  • Meanwhile, Variety’s Clayton Davis reports that the Oscars race has officially become “fractured, unpredictable and thrilling” following the BAFTA Awards. However, he predicts that “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan will win the Actor Award this weekend and has heard rumblings that “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke could pull a last-minute victory. 

  • IndieWire’s Anne Thompson says that Chalamet is “good to go” for the Actor Awards and the Oscars, adding that the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories are the ones to keep an eye on.

  • Deadline’s Pete Hammond believes that Chalamet’s BAFTA loss doesn’t necessarily impact the Actor Awards — Aramayo isn’t nominated for an Oscar and the BAFTA Awards tend to favor homegrown actors. He agreed with many of the other pundits in that Mosaku and Penn’s wins add more suspense.

  • AwardsRadar’s Joey Magidson points out that no one has ever won two Actor Awards in a row, which could open Chalamet up to an upset win from Hawke. 

  • Meanwhile, AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson has Chalamet as a lock for the Actor Award, though he lists Jordan as the follow-up should there be a surprise win in that category.

The Actor Awards are on Sunday, and whoever wins that evening could lock in the fate of the actors in the lead and supporting Oscar categories.

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