Markets
Netflix's Upfront 2025
(Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images)

Netflix sinks on lower-than-expected earnings forecast

Netflix’s report dropped on the same day it officially went all-cash in its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery.

Shares of streaming giant Netflix are down more than 4% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report.

Netflix issued earnings guidance of $0.76 per share for the first quarter of 2026, below the $0.80 per share expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. The streamer expects an operating margin of 32.1% for the quarter, up from 31.7% in the same quarter of 2025.

For the full year, Netflix issued revenue guidance of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion — with a midpoint slightly ahead of Wall Street’s $51 billion estimate.

For the quarter ended in December, the streamer posted adjusted earnings of $0.56 per share, slightly below FactSet estimates of $0.57. The company reported revenue of $12.05 billion, beating estimates of $11.97 billion and Netflix’s own forecast of $11.96 billion.

For every $1 of revenue Netflix booked last year, the streamer put $0.38 into creating or acquiring new shows or movies. That’s a significant shift from its content reinvestment habits a decade ago, when the recently wrapped “Stranger Things” had first debuted.

In absolute values, Netflix is investing more into content; it’s just making more money, too. Lucrative ad-supported tiers have boosted the company’s sales figures, with ad revenue growing to more than $1.5 billion in 2025.

Investors are likely awaiting further details on Netflix’s effort to acquire the streaming and studio assets of Warner Bros. Discovery on its Tuesday evening earnings call. WBD has repeatedly backed Netflix’s $83 billion offer while rejecting a $30-per-share bid by Paramount Skydance.

Earlier on Tuesday, Netflix further boosted its chances by amending its offer to be all-cash — a welcome development for WBD investors given Netflix’s stock decline after the earnings report. Still, the deal may face regulator scrutiny amid fierce opposition within the entertainment industry and Congress.

In its filing on Tuesday, Netflix said acquiring WBD’s HBO Max would allow it to offer more personalized and flexible subscription options, better meeting the diverse preferences of our global audience.”

As the Warner Bros. bidding war has intensified, event contracts focused on the future owner of the HBO parent company have begun to swing heavily in favor of Netflix. As of market close Tuesday, Netflix’s odds have climbed to 71%, compared to Paramount’s 16%. (Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Still, investors don’t appear obsessed with the idea of Netflix leading entertainment consolidation. Since the streamer’s deal for WBD was announced on December 5, its shares have dropped 13% as of Tuesday’s close.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

United Airlines rallies after Q4 earnings and Q1 profit guidance top estimates

Shares of United Airlines are rising after the bell on Tuesday, following the release of the carrier’s fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report.

United posted adjusted earnings per share of $3.10 in Q4, above the $2.92 per share expected by Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg. Sales of $15.4 billion were roughly in line with the consensus estimate.

The airline also:

  • Forecast full-year earnings per share between $12 and $14, bracketing Wall Street’s call for $13.04. For Q1, management sees EPS between $1.00 and $1.50, the midpoint of which is above the $1.16 expected by Wall Street.

  • Booked $13.93 billion in passenger revenue on the quarter, up nearly 5% year over year.

“Strong revenue momentum has continued into 2026,” according the company’s press release. “The week ending January 4th was the highest flown revenue week in United history, and the week ending January 11th was the highest ticketing week and the highest week for business sales in United history.”

UAL’s premium ticket revenue climbed 9% compared to a 7% increase in basic economy revenue. The “K-shaped economy” has become increasingly visible in travel trends at major US airlines. Last week, Delta’s revenue from first-class and business passengers eclipsed its main cabin revenue for the first time.

President Trump Delivers An Announcement From The Oval Office

Pharma largely unfazed as Greenland tariffs roil markets

Drugmakers, which have spent the past six months reaching tariff deals with Trump, seem to expect some immunity from a new batch of tariffs on European countries.

markets

POET Technologies nears multiyear high on strong call demand after flagship product wins award

POET Technologies is surging on heavy volumes and high call demand after announcing that it won a Product Innovation Award at China’s Infostone awards.

The honor went to the optical communications company’s flagship product, the Teralight, which uses light to move data between chips.

“Unveiled less than a year ago at the 2025 OFC Conference, POET Teralight has driven commercial interest in the Company because of its highly integrated design and complete optical system-on-chip architecture that simplifies module development,” per the press release.

This award may be the latest excuse to buy the stock, which is up over 40% year to date.

Call activity is elevated, with nearly 37,000 having changed hands as of 10:55 a.m. ET, well above the 20-day average of 28,030 for a full session. Shares are approaching their multi-year high of $9.41.

markets

Intel bucks market slump after Wall Street upgrades

While the market slid early Tuesday, Intel soared as the American chipmaker received a pair of upgrades:

  • HSBC analysts lifted their rating on the stock to “hold” — essentially “neutral” — from “reduce,” Wall Street-speak for “sell.” The analysts nearly doubled their price target for the shares to $50 from $26. (That’s essentially where the stock is currently trading.)

  • Seaport Global also boosted its rating to “buy” from “neutral,” with a $65 price target.

Improving demand for CPUs — Intel’s bread-and-butter processors — is behind HSBC’s newfound enthusiasm for the shares. Analysts at the bank wrote:

“We had been cautious on Intel mainly given overall uncertainty on customer pipeline and execution headwinds in their foundry business while the core business was also lacking visibility on growth drivers. However, we now turn more positive as we expect the traditional servers (DCAI) to get back on a growth trajectory. We expect there is an overwhelmingly increasing demand for server CPUs driven by rising agentic AI... While the stock has moved up 19% YTD (vs S&P 500 up 1%), we believe there is further [data center and AI group] upside still not fully priced in. Hence, we upgrade Intel from Reduce to Hold.”

HSBC seems to be slightly understating the extent of the gains for the stock so far in 2026, as its share price has risen nearly 30% since the end of last year. But the gains are even more impressive if you date them to the partial nationalization of the ailing American chip giant, which was announced on August 22. Almost a month later, Nvidia announced a strategic partnership with the company, giving it a massive shot in the arm. Since then the stock is up more than 90%.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.