Retail traders are killing it this year because of both what they’re buying and when they bought it
Buy the dip. Buy AI. Buy gold.
2025 is shaping up to be a dream year for retail traders: outperforming thanks to both what they bought and when they bought it.
“In ETFs — which represented 75% of retail’s invested dollars this year — retail investors outperformed both SPY and QQQ, thanks to their larger Tech bias and successful risk taking in precious metals during the September and October gold rush,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Arun Jain.
“Retail investors built substantial positions in AI/Tech companies by buying the dip during 3 episodes of weakness between Jan and Apr,” Jain added. “From May onward, they scaled back their stock purchases and shifted their focus to trading ETFs, chasing interesting trends such as GLD.”
The strategist noted that retail investors’ single-stock portfolio is fairly correlated to a JPMorgan AI data center/electrification basket, implying that the crowd is very long that theme — while also benefiting slightly from either good timing or security selection among the AI cohort.
Retail’s outperformance versus just steadily buying AI-linked stocks is smaller, thanks to recent volatility that saw speculative stocks get hammered for a month starting in mid-October, but the results still crush buying and adding to the Invesco QQQ Trust each month. Ahead of that brisk pullback, retail traders’ favorite stocks enjoyed a record winning streak late in Q3.
Retail’s success in the stock market is of no small import for the US economy.
I am a strong proponent of the idea that the resilience in US consumption year to date in the face of a rising unemployment rate and increase in tariffs is at least partially attributable to retail traders’ willingness to keep buying the dip — jumping in with their biggest net purchases in at least 10 years during the S&P 500’s worst day since 2020 back on April 3, the session after reciprocal tariffs were announced.
That made the cohort the biggest beneficiary of the ensuing bounce-back in stocks after the sharp declines from mid-February through early April.
