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Luke Kawa

Semiconductor industry keystone ASML tumbles after saying growth in 2026 isn’t guaranteed

Shares of ASML, the second-biggest company in Europe and a critical choke point in the semiconductor design process, are tumbling despite second-quarter results that surpassed every analyst’s estimates for both the top and bottom lines.

That’s because the Dutch company cautioned that it was unsure whether it would be growing next year, and said that revenues in the third quarter would come in between 7.4 billion euros and 7.9 billion euros. The Street was looking for something in the realm of 8.2 billion euros (1 EUR roughly = 1.16 USD).

The stock was recently down 8% in premarket trading.

“Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong,” President and CEO Christophe Fouquet said. “At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”

That’s walking back a statement made in the Q1 results from April, when Fouquet said that conversations with customers supported management’s expectation that 2025 and 2026 would be “growth years.”

Investors are increasingly looking forward to and pricing in expected 2026 results, RBC Capital Markets Chief US Equity Strategist Lori Calvasina said earlier this week, and the AI boom is a massive driver of S&P 500 earnings growth. This warning from ASML, however, must be balanced against the myriad commitments from the leaders of US megacap tech companies — like Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg — that their spending spree is poised to continue.

For what it’s worth, ASML’s pipeline does seem solid. Net bookings (the value of new contracts signed) surprised to the upside for both its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (or EUV, needed for the most advanced AI chips) as well as its non-EUV equipment.

But CFO Roger Dassen said that clients are waiting to learn more about tariffs and export controls before making more purchasing commitments.

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SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

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