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Tesla bulls are latching on to silver linings after the worst-ever drop in deliveries

Shares are rising, suggesting investors are looking past the bloodbath in sales and instead focusing on an AI-enabled future.

Rani Molla

There are a bunch of different ways to slice the Tesla delivery numbers that came out this morning. So far, traders are picking the optimistic ones.

Yes, Tesla reported its biggest drop in deliveries ever, having sold about 60,000 fewer vehicles than it did last year in Q2. And yes, the 384,000 deliveries fell short of analysts’ expectations, which have been getting revised down all quarter long. (Bloomberg’s consensus estimate was 389,000; FactSet’s was 387,000).

But the stock is up 5% today as the bulls are latching on to silver linings.

For example, Wedbush Securities analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives points out that though deliveries fell short of consensus estimates, they were better than the “whisper number” of 365,000 — the unofficial, unpublished number that Wall Street really expected.

The miss versus consensus was, overall, pretty narrow, coming in about 1% under — a narrower miss than last quarter. Here’s how deliveries have come in compared to estimates over the past few years:

As we’ve written before, Tesla often doesn’t trade on fundamentals — and that disparity might be stronger than ever.

Production also came in higher than expected, despite the company having some planned outages at its factories on the books. That could be optimistically read as the company thinking it’ll see demand tick up.

Another way to read all this? Tesla bulls are buying what CEO Elon Musk is selling. “The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots,” Musk said on the latest earnings call, reiterating a point he’s made again and again. In other words: don’t miss the forest (autonomy) for the trees (struggling vehicle sales).

Tesla’s small but mostly successful robotaxi launch last month in Austin is giving bulls enough hope that the future Musk is painting may actually come to pass.

As Ives wrote today, “Autonomous remains the biggest transformation to the auto industry in modern day history and in our view, Tesla will own the autonomous market in the US with the initial launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin.”

And failing everything else, maybe investors are just optimistic because Tesla’s CEO isn’t getting flamed today by the president of the United States, which caused the stock to tank yesterday.

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Report: US senators plan to introduce bill blocking Nvidia from selling advanced chips to China for 30 months

US senators are on the verge of introducing a bill that would block Nvidia from selling its H200 or Blackwell chips to China for 30 months, the Financial Times reports. The H200 is Nvidia’s best chip from the Hopper generation, while the Blackwell line is its current flagship offering.

Shares of the chip designer are little changed in the wake of this report, still up more than 1% on the session. The reaction makes sense, seeing as previous positive indications on Nvidia’s ability to sell advanced chips to China failed to inspire much positive momentum in its shares.

The stock got a short-lived jolt higher (that didn’t last the day!) on November 21 after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration had discussed the possibility of selling its H200 chips to China.

Nvidia has effectively been shut out of China’s AI market in 2025. First, export restrictions meant it could no longer sell the H20, a nerfed version of its Hopper chip, to the world’s second-largest economy. After that export ban was lifted, demand from China “never materialized,” per Nvidia CFO Colette Kress. Reports indicate that China banned its leading technology giants from purchasing these semiconductors, instead pushing them toward domestic alternatives.

President Donald Trump had mused about allowing Nvidia to sell Blackwell chips to China prior to his meeting with Chinese President Xi in late October, but failed to do so. The two leaders did not discuss the topic at that time.

Per the FT, this upcoming bill would be a bipartisan effort, being cosponsored by the leading Republican and Democrat members of the Senate Foreign Relations East Asia subcommittee.

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AI energy plays soar on an explosion of call buying

Like their quantum computing counterparts, AI-linked energy plays are benefiting from an explosion of bullish options activity on Thursday.

  • Oklo is up double digits with call volumes above 106,000 as of 2:46 p.m. ET, more than double its 20-day average for a full session, with a put/call ratio of about 0.6. Call options with a strike price of $110 that expire this Friday (which are now in-the-money thanks to today’s surge) are seeing the most activity.

  • Nuscale, another nuclear energy play, has seen nearly 140,000 call options change hands versus a 20-day average of 51,073.

  • And fuel cell company Bloom Energy has traded nearly 80,000 calls, roughly twice its 20-day average, with a put/call ratio of about 0.3.

During his appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast released on Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang talked up the potential for nuclear energy, saying, “In the next six to seven years I think you are going to see a whole bunch of small nuclear reactors.”

This adds to the evidence that the speculative bid is back in a big way after smaller stocks tied to the AI boom and quantum computing cratered from mid-October through most of November as credit risk began to seep into the AI trade.

Old electronic items tossed on ground for disposal, Hudson

Technology giants don’t look like they used to, as the asset-light era fades

Oracle and Meta are now some of the most capital-intensive businesses in the S&P 500, spending more than energy giants. I guess data really is the new oil?

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Space stocks rip amid speculation on Altman joining race

Space stocks AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab all soared Thursday amid a recovery in the high-beta momentum class of shares coveted by some retail traders.

(High-beta momo stocks are basically shares that have been on a winning streak for a while, and tend to go up a lot more than the overall market on positive days. Goldman Sachs includes all three of the aforementioned space stocks in its themed basket of such shares.)

There’s little other fundamental news out there on the companies themselves.

But a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI impresario Sam Altman has been toying with the idea of entering the space industry, potentially standing up a rival to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service, may also be contributing.

As we’ve mentioned elsewhere, sometimes these stocks seem to trade on a what’s-bad-for-the-Musk-empire-is-good-for-us-and-vice-versa vibe.

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