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US stocks: Weird, flat, and setting confusing new records

The stock market goes up when stocks go down, and down when stocks go up.

6/26/24 8:58AM

On the surface, this has been a very boring start to the week: a relatively small down day followed by a modest gain has the S&P 500 up 0.1% through Tuesday.

Under the hood, the price action has been so weird that we haven’t seen the likes of it in at least 27 years

Let’s start with Tuesday on its own: A fierce snapback in recently beleaguered tech shares, punctuated by Nvidia’s 6.8% gain, propelled the S&P 500 up by 0.4% on the day. The five biggest stocks in the S&P 500 rose, with Meta and Alphabet each up more than 2%. 

But the advance-decline line for the S&P 500 (the number of stocks up on the day less those that fell) was a whopping -274. There’s never been a session in which the S&P 500 rose this much on a day when that many stocks were actually down, in data going back to January 1997.

And now let’s look at Monday’s tape: the mirror image of Tuesday.  The advance-decline line was above +200, but the S&P 500 fell 0.3%. The success of the many could offset the pain in megacap semiconductor companies.

Tuesday was a superlative unto itself; putting the two days together yields another. In the past 27+ years, we’ve never had a session in which the advance-decline was above 200 but stocks fell followed by a day in which it was below -200 in which stocks rose (or vice versa).

What does this mean? Well, for one, it means we are somehow not running out of fresh ways to point out how market breadth has been (largely) terrible lately. 

More importantly, this dynamic also speaks to an underlying fragility within the stock market. The top-line market environment are calm, the inter-market environment is downright violent.

The trailing 20-day realized volatility of the S&P 500 information technology sector is in the 68th percentile relative to its long-term history (that is, well above average). The 20-day realized volatility of the S&P 500 is in just the 12th percentile, or very below average. That’s the biggest gap between tech sector and index level vol since at least October 2001 (the period for which we have realized volatility data available for all 11 S&P 500 sectors).

The seeming “magic” of high dispersion and low correlations between important parts of the market — that is, megacap tech, in particular Nvidia, versus everything else, is playing an increasingly important role in preventing major fireworks for US stocks at the headline level.

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Planet Labs slips after big post-earnings gain

Smallish midcap satellite imagery and data company Planet Labs is giving back a chunk of the nearly 50% gain it racked up after posting earnings early Monday.

No tears, though: the shares, which seem to have a fairly robust retail following, are still up roughly 340% over the past 12 months.

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CoreWeave soars as Microsoft’s deal with Nebius shows unrelenting demand for AI compute

CoreWeave is soaring as Microsoft’s $17.4 billion deal with Nebius shows the immense value and continued demand for all parts of the AI data center ecosystem.

One additional reason for CoreWeave’s jump may be that its pending acquisition of AI data center infrastructure company Core Scientific looks like a great deal compared to Microsoft’s renting of (more broad and advanced) AI data center capacity from Nebius.

CoreWeave’s all-stock deal to buy Core Scientific was initially valued at ~$9 billion, but with the subsequent decline in its shares, it’s worth about 40% less. And in purchasing Core Scientific, CoreWeave is saving $10 billion in what it would have paid the company to lease data center infrastructure over the next 12 years.

As it stands, Microsoft is getting about 300 megawatts in data center power capacity from Nebius, while Core Scientific boasts that its footprint is in excess of 1,300 megawatts. So, on the surface, it looks like an absolute steal for CoreWeave.

But again, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison; not all access to AI computing infrastructure is created equal.

There are differences in the type of AI infrastructure provided by the two: Nebius owns GPUs, while Core Scientific doesn’t, and what it provides in the software layer isn’t offered by Core Scientific as a stand-alone entity. This is the difference between the “full stack” approach (Nebius) and a “colocation” approach (Core Scientific).

That being said, CoreWeave’s acquisition of Core Scientific, once completed, will make the combined entity’s business model look more like Nebius’ model, which, as Microsoft just told us, is something that top hyperscalers are willing to pay a pretty penny for.

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UNH rises after preliminary data shows most Medicare Advantage enrollees will be on more lucrative, top-rated plans

UnitedHealth rose more than 4% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the company disclosed that it expects the majority of its Medicare Advantage enrollees will be on plans rated four stars or higher in 2026.

Though the data is only preliminary, about 78% of UNH’s Medicare Advantage members are in plans rated four stars or higher, the company said in a regulatory filing Tuesday morning. On Monday, the company said it plans to reiterate its full-year guidance when it meets with investors this week.

Insurance companies that provide government-sponsored plans, like Medicare Advantage, have struggled this year amid unexpected rising costs. Plans that are rated four stars or higher earn bonus payments and are typically more lucrative for healthcare insurance providers.

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