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Warren Buffett is building cash as the market soars


If Warren Buffett is selling, should you be buying?

It’s worth considering, as Berkshire Hathaway, the company run by the world’s greatest value investor, has been building a massive $325 billion pile of cash as the stock market soars.

This isn’t a big mystery. The cash build can be explained by the simple fact that Buffett, age 94, and the whippersnappers who do most of the daily trading at his shop are value investors.

It means they try to buy stocks when they are cheap — that is, undervalued, essentially when they have low price-to-earnings ratios.

And it has become abundantly clear that US stocks sure ain’t cheap at the moment, and there are few bargains to be had. That doesn’t mean the market is going to crash. Stocks can stay overvalued for a long time.

But if you happen to have a few hundred billion on your hands, and short-term Treasury bills are paying 4.50% annualized, why not stuff $325 billion into them, generating about $15 billion a year in risk-free returns? Sounds good to me.

This piece was updated to correct “millions” to “billions” in final paragraph.

This isn’t a big mystery. The cash build can be explained by the simple fact that Buffett, age 94, and the whippersnappers who do most of the daily trading at his shop are value investors.

It means they try to buy stocks when they are cheap — that is, undervalued, essentially when they have low price-to-earnings ratios.

And it has become abundantly clear that US stocks sure ain’t cheap at the moment, and there are few bargains to be had. That doesn’t mean the market is going to crash. Stocks can stay overvalued for a long time.

But if you happen to have a few hundred billion on your hands, and short-term Treasury bills are paying 4.50% annualized, why not stuff $325 billion into them, generating about $15 billion a year in risk-free returns? Sounds good to me.

This piece was updated to correct “millions” to “billions” in final paragraph.

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Joby sinks after announcing pricing of stock offering; 30.5 million shares to be sold at $16.85/share

Joby Aviation stock slid more than 9% pre-market trading Wednesday after the electric air-taxi company announced a $500 million overnight share sale.

In a new filing late last night, the company said it would sell 30.5 million shares of common stock at an offering price of $16.85 per share, resulting in gross proceeds of approximately $513.9 million. That price represents an ~11% discount to Tuesday’s closing price of $18.91.

The proceeds from the share sale will go towards helping Joby obtain FAA certification, scaling up production, and launching commercial flights, the company said in the statement.

Shares in Joby Aviation and fellow electric vertical takeoff and landing stock Archer Aviation were volatile this week after rumors, later dismissed, circulated that Tesla might announce a collaboration with the companies.

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Lucid sinks following weaker-than-expected Q3 vehicle deliveries and lowered analyst outlook

Lucid delivered 4,078 vehicles in its third quarter, the seventh straight quarterly delivery record for the luxury EV maker. But despite that year-over-year growth, the figure came in below Wall Street’s estimates by about 18% in a quarter where EV makers (including luxury competitors like Rivian) sold thousands of vehicles leading up to the expiration of the US federal EV tax credit.

Lucid shares fell more than 8% in Tuesday trading. Also likely making investors skittish was a freshly lowered Lucid rating by CFRA from “sell” to “strong sell.”

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson wrote that the rating drop “reflects concerns regarding LCID’s cash burn rate, weak demand, pricing pressures, EV competition, and the fact it is nowhere near close to achieving the mass production rates needed to meaningfully drive down unit costs.” CFRA’s price target for Lucid is $10, 55% below the stock’s current price.

Nelson argues customer demand is a major issue for Lucid, which hasn’t updated its full-year production guidance of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles since its earnings report in August. To achieve the low end of that range, Lucid will need to build more than 8,000 vehicles in its fourth quarter, which would reflect Q4 production growth of 137% year over year.

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Intercontinental Exchange makes strategic investment in Polymarket in bet on prediction markets

DraftKings and Flutter fell on the news, as prediction markets are clearly gaining traction and the risk to sports betting apps grows.

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Oracle tumbles after report that it’s lost nearly $100 million from renting out access to Nvidia’s Blackwell chips

You buy Nvidia’s flagship chips because they’re supposed to be best in class, empowering you to build better AI capabilities or make lots of money off other companies that want to harness the power of the AI boom.

Not quite, per this report from The Information, whose final paragraph begins with this line:

“In the three months that ended in August, Oracle lost nearly $100 million from rentals of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, which arrived this year.”

The report notes that some of this is a timing issue, a gap between getting data centers equipped for use and when customers start paying for services.

Oracle, which was roughly flat, quickly fell more than 5% as traders digested this report. Shares of Nvidia, which were up nearly 2% at their highs of the day, turned negative.

Citing internal documents, The Information says that Oracle’s “fast-growing cloud business has had razor-thin gross profit margins in the past year or so,” booking a gross profit of $125 million on rentals of servers that utilize Nvidia chips for the three months ending in August, for a gross margin of just under 14%.

The damage in markets is far from localized in those two stocks, however. In a reversal of how OpenAI’s deal with AMD buoyed the AI trade on Monday, this news is sparking a broad-based retreat.

Nvidia’s top AI chip rival, Broadcom, went from flat to down 2%, with memory chip specialist Micron and foundry giant TSMC also well in the red. Neocloud companies Nebius and CoreWeave, disk drive sellers Western Digital and Seagate Technology Holdings, and zero-revenue nuclear energy firm Okloare among the other stocks selling off on the news.

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