🪂 Buy the friendly skies

Much of the stock market has been concerned with down-to-earth matters, problems of copper and of silicon — specifically how to turn those base elements into the GPUs that serve as the linchpin of Corporate America’s quest to completely reinvent their industries with the power of AI. But all that focus on cloud computing has kept attention away from a vibrant industry about computing… amongst the clouds. 

• For instance, just last week AST SpaceMobile rose after announcing launch plans for the first of its next-generation satellites next month, as it tries to execute its plan to offer satellite-based broadband service directly to consumers.

• The services-from-space trade has been a popular market theme this year, with companies like AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, Rocket Lab, and Planet Labs all periodically soaring on updates related to their partnerships and launch plans that might allow them to offer broadband and cellular coverage from space.

• It’s not only satellites that are shaking up the skies, either. Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation have been dueling for supremacy in the nascent but potentially huge air taxi industry. 

• That rivalry between the much-hyped companies is heating up, as Joby has sued Archer, alleging the latter stole its trade secrets and used them to undercut a partnership deal in an act of “corporate espionage, planned and premeditated.”

• Boeing’s air taxi subsidiary, Wisk, sued Archer in 2021 as well, accusing the latter of “brazen theft” of confidential information and intellectual property.

Even the more established atmosphere-based businesses had been having a vibrant week with oil prices falling. Shares of major US carriers are up on oil’s price action, with Southwest up more than 5% and the rest of the big four airlines — American, Delta, and United — up between 2% and 6%.

The Takeaway

While the market debates whether it’s early innings, middle innings, or a late game on the AI trade, speculative and unprofitable businesses with sky-high potential do have at least some appeal. AST SpaceMobile says that its satellites will soon enable ubiquitous coverage directly to everyday smartphones from space, which sounds nifty even if (like competitors Rocket Lab and Planet Lab) the business remains unprofitable and is expected to post quarterly losses for the next two years, at least. And while Archer and Joby are both racing to develop electric air taxis for use in commercial flight, each has also struck deals with major defense contractors.

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• Why last week’s stock market reversal was so weird and unnerving, visualized: Technically, America’s flagship stock market index is only ~5% away from all-time highs. But an excellent observation from Sherwood News’ markets editor lent a bit of perspective on why Thursday’s remarkable stock market reversal felt so much more unnerving than it might look on paper. Chartr’s interactive data viz of every single day of the S&P 500 Index over the last decade makes it easy to see why.

• Eli Lilly jumps into the tech-dominated $1 trillion club: Propelled by sales of its blockbuster weight-loss drugs, the pharmaceutical giant joined Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple in an elite group of companies with over $1 trillion valuations. Sure, those three are still worth many multiples of a Lilly, but Lilly is the first healthcare company in the trillionaire club, and there’s only one other non-tech company in that rarified club.

Trillions are at stake in the fight for self-driving supremacy

Two of the biggest companies on the planet are finally slamming the accelerator as they try to capture a potentially humongous market. The promises are huge: autonomous taxis will be safer than human drivers and traffic deaths will plummet; robotaxis will make transportation so cheap, it could upend everything from car ownership to parking lots. But a big question remains — will it eventually turn into a race to the bottom?

Google vs. Tesla, charted

• 🏈 NFL: Carolina takes on San Francisco tonight, with the 49ers seen as having the edge, as traders* give it a 75% chance of winning the game. 

• 🎬 For Good: “Wicked: For Good” came out in theaters this weekend, and even before audiences had a chance to see the movie, it was already a contender for awards season. The market’s giving the movie a 43% chance of a nomination for Best Picture, Cynthia Erivo has a 53% chance of a nomination for Best Actress, and Ariana Grande has an 87% chance of a nomination for Best Supporting Actress. 

• 📊 BTC: The market’s been whipsawing around, but according to the events contracts markets, the likelihood that bitcoin tumbles below $70,000 by the end of the year has reached 27%, with the odds that bitcoin drops below $60,000 — once unthinkable — now up to 12%.

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reportedly said “the whole world would’ve fallen apart” if the company had had a bad quarter

• Why even OpenAI is worried about Google’s Gemini 3 (and it’s not because ads are showing up in Google’s AI Mode)

• Citi analysts: crypto is “having a bit of a meltdown”

• How bitcoin’s moves show that the stock market is actually fueled by vibes