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Soldier and Tank on Battlefield
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A.I. Joe

Tech executives pivot to war

Tech execs are cozying up to the military industrial complex, seeking partnerships, contracts, and now actual military commissions.

Jon Keegan

Tech executives tend to have their fads: fasting, cold plunges, and vampiric transfusions of youthful blood are life hacks that have become popular within the C-suites of the Silicon Valley crowd. But now a new trend is gripping the tech bro set: straight-up war.

In the twilight of the Biden administration, the White House signaled it was down to clown with AI companies for national security applications.

Tech companies wasted no time lining up for juicy defense partnerships and contracts. Meta offered up use of its Llama models for national security use, followed by Anthropic partnering with Palantir to use its Claude models on the battlefield.

It wasn’t that long ago that OpenAI prohibited the use of its products for “activity that has high risk of physical harm, including: Weapons development; Military and warfare,” only to quietly remove such language in January 2024. By the end of last year, OpenAI was announcing a deal with defense contractor Anduril to use its models to identify airborne threats.

Earlier this month, OpenAI announced its first one-year $200 million contract with the Department of Defense, which described the work as a contract to “develop prototype frontier AI capabilities to address critical national security challenges in both warfighting and enterprise domains.”

And the pivot to fighting is not just vague military contracts. It also includes prominent tech executives directly investing in weapons manufacturers and actually becoming active-duty members of the US Army:

  • Spotify CEO Daniel Ek is investing in German drone company Helsing, with his Prima Materia venture capital firm leading the $700 million investment round.

  • Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth is joining the US Army’s new “Detachment 201: Executive Innovation Corps” as an Army Reserve lieutenant colonel, along with...

  • ...OpenAI Chief Product Officer Kevin Weil...

  • ...Palantir’s CTO, Shyam Sankar...

  • ...and Bob McGrew, former chief research officer at OpenAI.

Of course, former government employee Elon Musk’s SpaceX has long been one of the most visible defense contractors, receiving over $4 billion in launch contracts from the Department of Defense, assuming President Trump doesn’t cancel the contracts in a fit of pique.

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Rather than fully cracking down on scam ads, Meta worked to make them harder to find

In its latest piece on Meta’s scam ads, Reuters found that the social media giant didn’t just remove fraudulent ads from its platforms — it also worked to make them harder for governments and journalists to find.

Fearing that Japanese regulators would require universal advertiser verification — a measure Meta estimated would cost roughly $2 billion to implement and potentially reduce its revenue by nearly 5% — the company took steps to make scam ads less “discoverable” to “regulators, investigators and journalists,” according to internal documents reviewed by Reuters.

“So successful was the search-result cleanup that Meta, the documents show, added the tactic to a ‘general global playbook’ it has deployed against regulatory scrutiny in other markets, including the United States, Europe, India, Australia, Brazil and Thailand,” Reuters wrote.

Previous Reuters reporting found Meta internally projected that about 10% of its 2024 revenue would come from ads tied to scams and banned goods, though the company later said that estimate was overly broad. Reuters also reported the rate was double in China.

“So successful was the search-result cleanup that Meta, the documents show, added the tactic to a ‘general global playbook’ it has deployed against regulatory scrutiny in other markets, including the United States, Europe, India, Australia, Brazil and Thailand,” Reuters wrote.

Previous Reuters reporting found Meta internally projected that about 10% of its 2024 revenue would come from ads tied to scams and banned goods, though the company later said that estimate was overly broad. Reuters also reported the rate was double in China.

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Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued,” is not currently shorting Tesla

Earlier this month, “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry said Tesla has been “ridiculously overvalued” for “a good long time” — and reiterated that message in a post on X on Tuesday. But the once prominent Tesla short seller isn’t currently betting against the stock.

Asked directly whether he would short Tesla now, Burry replied simply: “I am not short.”

Tesla is expected to report a double-digit decline in fourth-quarter deliveries this week.

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SoftBank becomes OpenAI’s biggest backer after fully funding $40 billion investment

SoftBank has fully funded its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, overtaking Microsoft as the company’s largest financial backer, CNBC reports. The deal was contingent on OpenAI transitioning to a for-profit public benefit corporation, which it did in September.

However, longtime partner Microsoft retains substantial influence over OpenAI with its roughly $13 billion investment, which translates to a stake worth about 27% of the startup’s valuation — which has been cited as high as $830 billion — as well as exclusive cloud and commercial licensing rights tied to Azure.

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Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries expected to fall 15% from last year

A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates pegs fourth-quarter deliveries at 422,850, which would mark a 15% slump from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. The estimates are notably lower than the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining over the past month.

The market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders think Tesla deliveries will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,000 in the quarter ending December.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Tesla typically shares its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its own website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co., HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Actual numbers are expected Friday.

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