“Crypto is on edge” as bitcoin dips below $77,000 and ETFs see $1 billion in weekly outflows
“The core question for the week ahead is whether ETF selling is a temporary rebalance after a strong run or the first sign that institutional allocators are fading the rally,” one analyst said.
Bitcoin sank under $77,000 on Monday morning, its lowest level in two weeks as uncertainty about the war with Iran puts pressure on risk assets.
“Crypto is on edge. The current issue is not a lack of liquidity, but rather that capital is waiting for clearer direction from geopolitical developments, US rate expectations, and upcoming regulatory signals,” Dean Chen, a Bitunix analyst, told Sherwood News.
Crypto liquidations reached over $724.4 million in the past 24 hours with bitcoin suffering over $202 million in liquidations, with the bulk of them — $177 million — in long positions, per CoinGlass.
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs also suffered a whopping $1 billion in outflows, the largest weekly exit since the last week in January, according to SoSoValue.
“The core question for the week ahead is whether ETF selling is a temporary rebalance after a strong run or the first sign that institutional allocators are fading the rally,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said, adding that when institutional participants reduce exposure near resistance, it can cap the rally even as on-chain activity improves.
“ETF flow reversal has raised the bar for a clean breakout. Investors should treat the high-$70,000s as the key battleground. A return to ETF inflows would put the rally back on track; continued outflows would turn this into a liquidity test rather than a momentum trade,” Misir said.
While last week’s CLARITY Act markup had briefly boosted sentiment and pushed the price higher, both the bump and the optimism were short-lived.
Pratik Kala, Apollo Crypto portfolio manager and head of research, told Sherwood that CLARITY only matters with a more favorable backdrop.
“Global bond yields are rising, which is a net negative for risk. Combined with no clarity on the war, Trump’s posts insinuating a restart of the war, with no clarity on Hormuz, risk sentiment is off. News from the US-China summit was also lackluster — no big win. Bitcoin will likely continue to be under pressure in the mid-term,” Kala said.
He views $72,000 as a possible target if yields do not stabilize or if the war restarts, while $67,000 is “a strong support region as the next target.”
“No near-term catalysts, unfortunately. All the fundamentals are here, we just need the buyers. Schwab turned on trading too; there was a small rally, then it faded. Saylor jammed in billions via STRC — faded,” he said.
Other factors are also driving bitcoin’s price, including inflation data and technical readjustments.
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Sherwood that many trading shops positioned themselves long, betting on a detente amid Iran-US tensions ahead of US-China negotiations.
“Nothing really came out [of the Trump-Xi meeting], though, and so I suspect a flurry of portfolio managers on a winning side of a trade decided to take a small profit, and bid again lower,” d’Anethan said.
That said, no price oscillation deters perma-bull Strategy from acquiring more bitcoin. Michael Saylor said the company bought 24,689 bitcoin for $2 billion. It now holds 843,738 bitcoin, more than 4% of the token’s total supply.
