markets

4/23/25

Scott Bessent’s ascendance is the salve for a shaky US stock market

For traders, it’s important to know who has the president’s ear.

Personnel is policy, or so the old saying goes, and the various officials swirling around the Oval Office have different preferences on the best measures to take for the US economy. It’s something that bears close watching as some of the administration’s harsher stances on trade and monetary policy were softened, at least rhetorically, on Tuesday.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the April 9 announcement from President Trump to water down reciprocal tariffs on most nations was in part spurred by a window of opportunity: noted trade hawk Peter Navarro wasn’t around to dissuade the president.

Neil Dutta, head of US economics at Renaissance Macro Research, took this a step further in a morning note to clients, breaking down how the S&P 500 has performed on days when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (a hedge fund chief in his previous life) is mentioned more in news articles than Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick or Navarro.

His findings:

“Since the beginning of March, the S&P 500 has shed a total of 719 points on days Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro have been the biggest story. By contrast, if Bessent has been the biggest story on the day, the S&P 500 has advanced a total of 52 points. So, Bessent is good for about 1ppt up on the S&P500. By contrast, the others are a drag of about 13.5ppt. Trump’s recent comments around Powell, his soothing words around China, all tell you that Trump is starting to ‘feel the market.’ I’m not sure how long it lasts or when it stops (probably until the next bad hard data point), but it is welcome.”

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41m

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 0.25%, signals 50 basis points of additional easing by year-end

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this year, lowering its policy rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, as anticipated.

The “dot plot” from the Summary of Economic Projections shows the median Fed official thinks it will be appropriate for the policy rate to end this year at 3.625% (expected 3.875%) and 3.375% in 2026 (expected 3.375%) if the economy evolves in line with their expectations.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF moved modestly higher, just above flat for the day, in the immediate aftermath of this release, before proceeding to head to its lows of the day. Small cap stocks look to be the real beneficiary of the Fed restarting rate cuts, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF up more than 1%.

The US central bank raised its forecast for how high core PCE inflation will be next year to 2.6% from 2.4% in June, which heavily implies that monetary policymakers are willing to look through the near-term inflationary impulse from tariffs and softening job growth has assumed more prominence in their decision-making process.

There was only one dissent: newly-added Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who favored a 50 basis point cut at this meeting and appears to be the outlier Fed official who thinks the policy rate should end the year at 2.875%.

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LoanDepot shares soar as it gathers retail interest

Shares of the struggling mortgage originator have more than doubled in the last month.

Loan Depot Shares Soar amid Wall Street Bets optimism

markets

2h

Plug Power’s option-fueled romp higher continues to accelerate

For the second day in a row, Plug Power is surging on little to no news and a ton of seemingly bullish option flow.

Tuesday’s call volumes of 97,079 were over 5x the 20-day average, and the hydrogen fuel cell company has already nearly doubled that mark by 11:54 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

So far 181,671 call options have changed hands, with activity once again centered in contracts with a strike price of $2 that expire on October 17 and this Friday.

The put/call ratio is less than 0.03, which if sustained would be the lowest since May 27, 2020. The volumes appear to be a bit of a mirage when it comes to assessing just how bullish these flows are: some of this looks to be an unwind of the previous session’s trade, with the October call options being sold.

markets

3h

IonQ’s purchase of Vector Atomic will support efforts to grow its sales to governments, says Needham & Company

IonQ’s announced plans to acquire quantum sensor company Vector Atomic in an all-stock deal worth approximately $400 million. The purchase is expected to close in Q4.

“This acquisition marks a significant acceleration and expansion opportunity for IonQ as we continue to lead the commercialization of quantum technologies,” Niccolo de Masi, chairman and CEO of IonQ, said in a press release. “Integrating Vector Atomic’s sensing capabilities across our compute, networking, and space portfolios will advance our mission to provide scalable, commercial-grade quantum solutions for our customers today. The addition of Vector Atomic’s 29 pending and issued patents to IonQ’s formidable patent portfolio, and its talented team of scientists and engineers will help us reach our quantum technology goals.”

Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton, who has a “buy” rating and $80 price target on IonQ, highlighted that Vector Atomic’s more than $200 million in government contracts and projects would help support the company’s growth in this area.

“Vector Atomic’s field-validated offerings, which include high-performance clocks, synchronization hardware, gravimeters, and inertial sensors, strengthen IonQ’s position as the only quantum company integrating computing, networking, and sensing within a single platform,” he wrote. “Vector Atomic’s portfolio of products has been designed to support mission-critical federal and national security applications.”

This deal comes on the heels of the closing of its acquisition of Oxford Ionics and its Analyst Day event, which served as a catalyst for IonQ and the broader quantum space.

Today, on the other hand, IonQ is not the top performer in the industry: that distinction goes to D-Wave Quantum, which is benefiting from a wave of bullish options bets.

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