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C3.AI meme
(“SpongeBob SquarePants”)

The company with the world’s most enviable stock ticker isn’t cashing in on AI

When your ticker is “AI,” people expect you to be riding the wave better than anyone else — but that hasn’t happened for C3.ai.

Executives in Corporate America are bending over backward to describe their products as “AI-powered or AI-driven,” desperate to join the hype train. Weirdly, the stock with the enviable “AI” ticker is going the opposite way.

C3.ai, a 16-year-old enterprise software firm that develops AI tools for businesses and government use, has fallen 34% in the past month — hit first by a weak preliminary forecast in August, followed by actual quarterly results on Wednesday, which founder Tom Siebel described as “completely unacceptable.

For the quarter ended July 31, revenue fell 19% year over year to $70.3 million, missing forecasts by a mile; Wall Street was expecting somewhere north of $100 million, per Bloomberg. Losses, unsurprisingly, ballooned as well, with a net loss of nearly $117 million.

Indeed, since its 2020 IPO, the company has remained in the red, with losses continuing to widen.

C3.ai has rebranded several times since its founding in 2009: first as C3, focusing on carbon emissions tracking, then as C3 IoT in 2016 during the Internet of Things boom, and finally as C3.ai in 2019, pivoting to artificial intelligence. Shares popped after its IPO, but are now down ~90% from its peak, seriously missing the AI rally that’s defined the last two years.

Siebel blamed the weak quarter on the company’s disruptive sales overhaul, while also citing his own health issues. This week, the company appointed Stephen Ehikian as CEO, with Siebel staying on as executive chairman. Despite the miss, Siebel emphasized that C3.ai has an “extraordinarily large market opportunity, a superlative product offering, and exceptional levels of customer satisfaction.”

Still, analysts remain skeptical. Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan warned the guidance may need to be reset lower, while Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives called the last quarter “brutal” and cautioned of “darker days” if performance doesn’t improve. 

Of course, AI isn’t a magic word that turns hype into profit. Though the frenzy around the tech has produced big winners, with Nvidia surpassing $4 trillion in market cap and Palantir transforming into a corporate behemoth thanks to a strong retail following, other names like Marvell, Adobe, and Salesforce are facing setbacks as their AI push has yet to meaningfully boost their bottom lines.

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Vertiv drops after offering uninspiring Q2 guidance, overshadowing solid Q1 beat

Shares of Vertiv Holdings dropped as much as ~6% in early trading on Wednesday after the data center equipment’s better-than-expected Q1 numbers were overshadowed by uninspiring guidance.

For the quarter ended, March 31, 2026, Vertiv reported:  

  • Q1 adjusted earnings per share of $1.17 vs. the $1.00 consensus expectation from analysts surveyed by FactSet.

  • Sales of $2.65 billion vs. the $2.64 billion expectation (compiled by FactSet).

  • For Q2, Vertiv expects adjusted earnings of between $1.37 and $1.43, coming in below the $1.43 consensus estimate at its midpoint.

  • Q2 guidance for Vertiv net sales of $3.25 billion to $3.45 billion also vs. Wall Street’s call for $3.40 billion.

Vertiv, which listed in February 2020 as a result of GS Acquisition Holdings Corp., a so-called blank-check company, merging with private equity-owned Vertiv Holdings, has soared over 300% over the last year through Tuesday’s close, as investors have rushed to snap up shares of companies poised to collect some of the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending that the hyperscalers are pouring into the data center build-out. 

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Adobe rises on $25 billion stock buyback

Adobe was up as much as 3.5% in early trading on Wednesday after the company announced a share repurchase plan worth up to $25 billion, signaling to investors that company management sees retiring shares as a prudent use of capital at these levels. The stock has been down more than 60% since Feb 2024, largely on concerns that AI tools will disrupt the company’s business.

The new authorization, which Adobe detailed will extend through April 30, 2030, “is a direct expression of confidence in our robust cash flow and the long-term value we are delivering to investors,” said CFO Dan Durn in a press release.

Indeed, fears that new agentic models could affect demand compounded when Anthropic unveiled Claude Design last week, sending the company’s shares down on the announcement. Adobe released a series of AI-enabled customer service functions shortly after. Rival Figma, which Adobe was set to acquire before the deal was blocked by regulators, has also been under pressure.

Adobe is also not the only spooked software company proposing new buyback plans to bring investors back, joining Salesforce, which actually issued debt to buy back shares in a programme of the same size ($25 billion).

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

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