Hey Snackers,
Remember the mysterious AI gadget that OpenAI is cooking up under the direction of former Apple design guru Jony Ive? According to CEO Sam Altman, the product is now in the prototype phase, and he vaguely disclosed some of the details, adding to the earlier tidbit that the tool will be “multimodal.” Apparently this isn’t even the first prototype, but the last one didn’t inspire a feeling of “I want to pick up that thing and take a bite out of it,” which is… not generally how we judge our devices, but you do you, Orb-man.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all climbed markedly higher on Monday. Broadcom was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 as rave reviews for Google’s Gemini 3 boosted the appeal of its custom chips. Tech led the pack among sector ETFs as the AI trade was back in favor, followed by consumer discretionary, driven by gains in Tesla. In fact, every BATMMAAN stock rose. Dovish commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller fueled December rate cut optimism.
Google has smoked the rest of its Big Tech peers this year
Just six months ago, Google was criticized by some investors for being a little lost. Its ultimate cash cow, Google Search, seemed threatened by ChatGPT, many of its nascent bets were far from making a positive impact to its bottom line, and the US government was still toying with the idea of breaking up the Search-Ads-Maps-Gmail-Chrome-YouTube machine.
But a lot has gone right over the last six months.
Most notably, the company has stormed ahead in the AI race, with warm reception to its latest model, Gemini 3 — which even spooked OpenAI’s Sam Altman — sending the stock to record highs, as investors anticipate direct usage of the Gemini chatbot and an even stronger AI-boosted moat around the rest of Google’s vast suite of software products.
That release, combined with the landmark news in September that the nuclear antitrust option of breaking the company up was essentially off the table, was a catalyst for a stellar run in Alphabet’s stock, now the best-performing BATMMAAN stock in 2025.
Google has notched other wins, too. The company just released a new TPU chip that’s 30x more power efficient than its 2018 version, helping it keep up with its exploding AI compute needs at a time when Nvidia’s chips are hard to come by.
Meanwhile, its self-driving arm, Waymo, has rapidly expanded to include freeways and new cities (with a 2,500-car fleet in service that outnumbers Tesla’s robotaxis), its search business is notching record revenues, Google Cloud business is signing deal after deal — most recently with NATO this morning — and YouTube remains the biggest thing on TV.
The Takeaway
Things were looking pretty shaky there for a moment, but Google proved that one thing that massive companies with its kind of scale are capable of is resisting the challengers that are trying to rattle the company. Size has lots and lots of advantages — hence the antitrust issues to begin with — and it’s tough to find a better example of a company exploiting its massive footprint better than Google.
Get ETF Exposure To America’s In-Demand Energy Sector
The U.S. is the world’s largest natural gas producer and exporter.¹ As rising global power consumption propels demand, Global X’s new U.S. Natural Gas ETF (LNGX) offers investors a way to capture potential growth in American companies with high natural gas exposure across the value chain — from production to processing, transportation, and exports.
While U.S. natural gas stands to benefit from the surging power needs of AI and data centers, LNGX isn’t just another “AI play.” Rising LNG exports, growing energy demand, and supportive energy policies are all driving expansion of the natural gas sector.
For ETF investors, LNGX provides a tactical opportunity as the US strengthens its role as a global energy leader — with potential for long-term structural growth as power demand intensifies. See how LNGX from Global X ETFs could strengthen your portfolio.
Bitcoin’s plunge produces technical signal that implies 60% more downside to come
The rout in bitcoin is poised to produce a bearish technical signal that has meant “substantial more downside to come” in four of its prior five instances.
The signal in question is the MACD, the monthly moving average convergence/divergence indicator, which takes the difference between the 26-month exponential moving average (EMA) of an asset with its 12-month EMA. When that MACD crosses below its own nine-month EMA — what’s known as the signal line — that’s considered to be bearish.
November is slated to be the sixth time this monthly MACD sell signal has been generated in bitcoin’s history. 80% of the time, bitcoin has gone on to fall about 60% after this technical breakdown occurs, as you can see in the charts.
Michael Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, observed that bitcoin has had a much higher positive correlation with other asset classes compared to the first half of 2021, another period when there was immense appetite for tech stocks in general and speculative ones in particular.
“In the immediate term, we note that Bitcoin is very oversold (daily RSI) at 22 and has been bouncing off the 80k level, the point of the Liberation Day lows,” Purves wrote, adding that “longer term dip buying right now appears less likely and bearish momentum is reinforced.”
The Takeaway
It’s been a rough month for bitcoin, which is poised to have its worst month since 2022 if things don’t turn around. In the world of crypto, where there are no fundamentals to use for analysis, traders lean on technical analysis to find patterns in the charts to guide their trading decisions. Bearish signals like the death cross or this MACD crossover can become almost self-fulfilling prophecies in crypto as traders react more in line with what should happen after the sign, and therefore that very future comes true.
The Best Thing We Read Today
BofA: Sports gambling, prediction markets boom is creating “emerging credit risks”
Prediction markets are booming, with much of the growth in activity consisting of what are, in the plainest terms, wagers on sports. Bank of America analysts flagged that these activities tend to result in an increased incidence of financial hardship, with young men and lower-income consumers particularly vulnerable. And this convergence of entertainment and speculative finance could introduce new risks for lenders and others.
The Blueprints Behind Tomorrow’s Market Moves
Cybersecurity. Semiconductors. AI. Thematic investing is one way of becoming a stakeholder in the future of tech — and Nasdaq’s indexes are connecting investors with the trends that matter.
Whatever your goal, see how Nasdaq Global Indexes gives you an investment toolkit for tomorrow.
Snacks Shots
🏈 NFL: Based on the market-implied* odds of conference championship contenders, the NFL season features the Ravens, Patriots, and Colts all fighting it out in the AFC while the Eagles, Rams, and Seahawks lead the NFC. That is to say, we’re just doing 2006 again.
✨ AI: Anthropic’s release of Claude 4.5 sent a ripple through the event contracts market over which AI will lead the LMArena Leaderboard by year-end. While it did surpass Grok to become the second-most-likely winner, it’s still a distant second to Alphabet’s Gemini.
🏒 NHL: As Sunbelt teams like Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Vegas continue to dominate the league, the chance of a Stanley Cup return to Canada — which has not happened since 1993 — isn’t looking great this year, with the market giving the Edmonton Oilers the best shot at winning it for Canada with just an 8% chance. Resident markets editor and die-hard Toronto Maple Leafs fan Luke Kawa, when asked for comment, merely took several deep breaths and remarked, “Hockey is bad.”
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
What Else We're Snackin'
The “better things” “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry has moved on to since de-registering his hedge fund? A $379-per-year Substack
Elon Musk boasted that Tesla will build AI chips at higher volumes “than all other AI chips combined”
Amazon, which already has 900 data centers around the world, plans to invest $50 billion in AI and supercomputing infrastructure for the US government
Alas, it’s not a match: Grindr ended engagement on a take-private proposal
After volatile year, Citi analyst sees risks of investor exhaustion
Snack Fact Of The Day
About half of American adults use YouTube and Facebook every single day.
This Week's Earnings
Tuesday: Earnings expected from Alibaba, Nio, Abercrombie & Fitch, Analog Devices, Kohl’s, Best Buy, Burlington, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dell, Workday, Autodesk, Urban Outfitters, HP, and Petco
1 Reuters, US gas-heavy power pipeline set to stoke LNG exporter tensions, Aug 2025.