Hey Snackers,
Ahead of the Academy Awards, we’ve been dutifully watching the films nominated for Best Picture and finally checked “F1” off our list, learning that while racing awards only one winner, it also rewards teamwork. Perhaps that’s what’s behind the unusual partnership between “F1” maker Apple and Netflix, which are sharing the spoils of each one’s F1 wins. Apple will allow Netflix to simulcast the F1 Canadian Grand Prix, and in return Apple TV can carry Netflix’s popular “Drive to Survive” docuseries.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell while the Russell 2000 gained on Thursday as investors digested Nvidia’s earnings. Most constituents of the S&P 500 rose as the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF advanced, but tech, which was the worst-performing sector, weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The financials sector fared the best.
🧠 Trivia time… Test yourself with our Snacks Seven Quiz. Here’s a sample question:
What is America’s favorite condiment?
Terrific quarter, terrible reaction
As Yogi Berra once said, it’s déjà vu all over again: Nvidia’s post-earnings bump after solid results and stellar guidance soured on Thursday, with the stock suffering its worst daily loss since April.
During its conference call, management talked up how strong the demand outlook is — not just for this year, but for 2027 as well. CEO Jensen Huang was asked whether the hyperscalers, Nvidia’s biggest customers, would continue to pour even more money into his GPUs when their ability to generate cash has been getting weaker and weaker because of all that capex, as this simple chart makes plain.
Huang indicated he was confident that hyperscalers’ cash flows would improve and said, “In this new world of AI, compute equals revenues.”
The problem is that Wall Street’s expectations for free cash flow have done nothing but go down since the AI boom started. “There’s always next year” has been the thinking for when these investments would result in more cash coming in the door, but “next year” has yet to arrive.
Nvidia is still undoubtedly the epicenter of the AI boom. But while it once traded off its customers’ capex budgets, its fate is now seemingly more tied to its customers’ return on investment.
The Takeaway
Automaker Henry Ford famously wanted to pay his employees enough so that they could afford to buy the cars they produced. Similarly, investors need to be convinced that Nvidia’s GPUs earn enough for their buyers so that these purchases will continue to accelerate.
AI is still being treated as a powerful force in the stock market, with the potential for upheaval across different industries. It’s also making its presence felt in the bond market — which encompasses the totality of expectations for economic activity.
Tesla’s ride-hailing service is looking a lot more like Uber’s than Waymo’s
Despite numerous promises about amassing a giant network of driverless cars, so far it seems like Tesla’s Robotaxis are a lot more similar to Uber’s plain old ride-hailing service than Waymo’s expanding autonomous fleet.
In California, where Tesla has its largest ride-hailing service with roughly 300 Teslas, the company has taken no formal steps to gain approval for a truly driverless car service. Throughout 2025, Tesla failed to log a single mile of autonomous test driving on state roads, and hasn’t even applied for the necessary permits to test or deploy vehicles without a human present.
In Austin, where the company has about 45 vehicles, Tesla made a big show of announcing it was removing the safety monitors sitting in the front seat during rides. But in reality, there is still a person sitting in the front seat of most of those vehicles.
In other words, it’s performing a service more akin to a tech-heavy Uber ride than the one operated by Alphabet subsidiary Waymo, which earlier this week announced it now has driverless rides available to the public in 10 cities.
The Takeaway
Even though we started with the premise of Tesla being more like Uber, in reality even Uber is trying to put space between itself and the old driver-having Ubers of yore. This week its autonomous software partner said the company plans to launch a driverless service in London this year, with plans for 10 markets.
During its earnings report last month, Tesla said it planned to offer Robotaxi service in a half dozen new cities in the first half of this year, including Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas. But judging by Tesla’s progress so far, it’s likely if you hail one, you’ll find a human in the front seat.
Mark Benioff shades competitors in Salesforce’s earnings call
In Wednesday’s earnings call, Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff got a little spicy, likening competitors ServiceNow and Veeva to “purgatory” while name-checking the customers whose business Salesforce poached, including Sunrun, AstraZeneca, and “there’s others too that we’re not allowed to mention, but I might mention them anyway.”
Salesforce even invited three happy customers to the earnings call, in what looked like a cross between a YouTube podcast and an infomercial.
Snacks Shots
🩲 Underwear Olympics: The 2026 NFL Scouting Combine (aka the “Underwear Olympics,” as college prospects are assessed by scouts while running, jumping, and weight lifting while wearing shorts and spandex) began yesterday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Star Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the prediction markets’ 97% favorite* for No. 1 draft pick, while Ohio State’s Arvell Reese is the favorite for the No. 2 pick.
🗳️Texas tea: According to early voting data, Democrats’ turnout ahead of next Tuesday’s primaries in Texas is surging. Currently, more votes have been cast in Texas’ Democratic primary than the Republican primary, with prediction markets pricing in 73% odds that the Democrats will have a higher turnout than the Republicans. As for the primary winners, Talarico (D) and Paxton (R) are the markets’ favorite to face off in the general election.
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
OFF THE CHARTS
Which company plans to burn 23x what Tesla burned in its cash-incinerating phase from 2007 to 2018?
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What else we're Snackin'
Celsius surged after crushing earnings expectations as the CEO noted the brand reached “20% dollar share of the U.S. energy drink category”
As Nvidia’s gaming results underwhelm, the company sees “very tight” quarters ahead
The latest boss to put the kibosh on using AI at work? The pope
But Google is doing its best to make AI fun again with its new Nano Banana 2 drop
Snack Fact of the Day
Smartphone shipments are expected to decline 13% — the biggest drop ever — to 1.12 billion in 2026.
Friday
January Producer Price Index